Saturday, June 20, 2009

Some fundamental calls

There are no shortage of opportunities to scalp around the commodities but finding deep value investments are a little tougher given the economic outlook.

Markets may have rallied and there may have been some stimulus in the system prompting some improved data but I get the sense we're starting a second downward leg.

Previously on this blog I've mentioned that I like the agriculture and food sectors as good bets over the next year or so. I've had my holdings in Zeder (plus followed the rights issue) and added to my shares in Country Bird Holdings (CBH) on the back of the directors dealings.

Another sector I hadn't given much consideration to was education in South Africa. Specifically private sector education.

Your main listed entry point for education at the moment is via Advtech which owns the Crawford schools. The share has run hard but they have an important area that AdvTech has is scale... You need scale and infrastructure to make a success of education for obvious reasons.

The second unknown entry point which I had only heard about quite recently was through Paladin Capital (a soon to be listed subsidiary of the PSG group). They've apparently got a fairly sizeable investment in a new education player which might be of interest....

** Author holds shares in ZED, CBH, PSG

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