Monday, June 22, 2009

But but but....

A sea of red greets traders today with Asia kicking us off. Had a couple of overnight shorts in place on both the Hang Seng and Nikkei which I've cashed out... Still reckon there is more downside to this leg but nobody ever went broke taking a profit.

The only thing I've got open now is a short on the Dow with a downward trend back in place as the rally fizzles out after the World Bank came out yesterday with some negative comments about future growth potential... which was in contrast to comments attributed to George Soros who said "The worst was behind us"

I am by no means a perma-bear and I think there are some nice value opportunities in the market at the moment - particularly in the South African market - but we need to appreciate how skittish investors are.

The bid by Xstrata for Anglo American gave the local market a bit of a boost but having chatted to a few people I get the sense that the bid is not going to get the support needed and if the "transaction premium" gets yanked out from Anglo then the JSE Top40 could take a smack.

Commodity futures are down as well. I thought there might be a bit more support for gold at 920 and oil at US$68 (particularly after its recent strength) but I guess next areas of interest for me are gold at around US$910 and oil at US$65.

(On that - I noticed an interesting story on Bloomberg about Japanese banks threatening to pull some funding from Venezuelan oil assets in response to non-payment and nationalisation threats... could this be a short term catalyst?)

Down still seems to be the only direction.

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