Monday, March 30, 2009

Over....

I guess this means that the rally is over...??

Looking over at the Dow in the US it's "blood on the trading screens" with the heavyweight industrial index down over 320 points....


It's funny - it didn't matter how many people you spoke to in the last week or so, almost everybody was cautioning against being sucked into this rally... and yet people couldn't help but chase the "hope".

I'm guessing we're going to see a sub-7000 Dow this week as reality starts to sink in again about how tough things are out there. My feeling is that today was the death knell for General Motors (and probably Chrysler as well)... although I have no idea how Ford is managing to stay alive in these markets.

Having said that, I don't think South African equities are particularly expensive and I guess doing a bit of stock-picking should pay-off in the next few years from these levels.

Two stocks I've blogged on before, remain popular in my tiny investment universe - namely Interwaste and Zeder.

Interwaste
Interwaste is a waste-management firm and the only way for SA investors to gain exposure to this lucrative sector in the listed space. The company reported its full year results to December 2008, and a much better performance. I looked specifically at the cash flow from operations and I reckon this free cash-flow indicates some dividends could be on the cards in the next few months.

Remember also that management remain sizeable shareholders in the business and that will probably mean that they'd like to push for dividends as well out of their investment.

Zeder
This agricultural operation has announced that they will be going ahead with a rights issue at 135c a share, in the next few months. The company says it sees a number of opportunities and it is raising cash to take advantage of them.

Zeder is trading on an historic PE of 6 in a relatively defensive sector, especially with its large stakes in KWV and Pioneer.

Think there is merit in adding to these two positions.

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