Monday, March 2, 2009

Going long

Geez another rout on stock markets yesterday and the Dow Jones went below our 6800 target briefly closing at 6763 points down 299 points.

Big news of the day on the international front was that AIG reported a US$62bn loss for the quarter and on the local front the speculation is running riot (For the nth time!) that Old Mutual will offload their Nedbank stake.

What was interesting though was that despite the rout on US equity markets, the Alsi only moved down 0.43% and at this very moment in time the Nikkei has given up only 49 points and at one stage was threatening to go green. While the US takes the pain the rest of the world seems to be taking a back-seat ... a chance to look for a short term bounce?

I started going long in late trade on Monday, pretty much across the board.

  • Long Gold
  • Long Sasol
  • Long Old Mutual (yeah yeah I know.... but there results are coming out so its worth a punt)
  • Long Absa
  • Long Remgro

You're probably thinking I'm a little loco going out on a limb here and going long but I think one has to stick to their convictions in some instances - I said 6800 was close enough to my short-term "low".

Also watching the Rand / Dollar exchange rate, I think this is where the kicker is going to come from over the next few days. The Rand slipped to R10.50 to the dollar and there doesn't seem to be too many reasons for it to go stronger either. I wouldn't be surprised if it fell to R11 to the dollar by the end of the week and that will provide a bit of upward momentum for our index - particularly if international markets take a bit of a breather...

Will see how it plays out

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Things were looking good when OML spiked on Wednesday when they released their financial results.... Got screwed when the selling came in.

Sasol came to the rescue... Not too shabby I guess.