So even Donald Trump is now missing interest payments on some of his property developments?! Tut tut... For a guy who runs a reality TV show on how to make money running his own business, he often has to have his businesses taken away from him when he starts doing silly things...
But that's not the main focus of this blog posting...
... but I thought at least it would make you feel better if you happened to have just missed a R5000 instalment on your house... Trump just missed a US$334.2m payment so you're not that bad!
Last week I said I didn't buy into what I called a 'sucker rally'. It wasn't a great call if one considers that the Dow Jones has subsequently rallied some 10%, but I think we could still see a re-test of the 8000 level this week and more weakness in global equities in general.
I think it is fair to say that many traders (big and small money alike) are tired of 2008 and with the 1st of December now here, its time to pack up the trading console and drift through to the end of the year.
Throw in the issues around the terror attacks in India and the riots in Thailand and you can understand why nobody is wild about making in investments in the market. With the relationship between India and Pakistan on a knife edge and economic data out of China looking very unpleasant, it would be hard to see global equity markets go much higher before the end of the year - even in the "BRIC" economies.
Looking at the Asian markets, they're down over 1% - although I suspect everybody is waiting for the US to provide some direction. My first instinct though is that we're heading either sideways or down for the rest of 2008.
Platinum was up a bit which I thought was quite interesting, but Gold doesn't seem to be headed anywhere at the moment consolidating around the US$810 mark.
It has been a tough year for traders and I don't think we're anywhere near the bottom of the battle. The corporate landscape is likely to continue to shift for many years and I suspect we're still going to see some big names flounder.
Hopefully 2009 starts on a bit more positive note...
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
African Bank
Very quick blog post in this regard... South Africa's 'other' bank reported its full year results and once again they proved themselves the masters of risk management by keeping it simple and stupid.
By "The Other Bank" I of course refer to African Bank Investments Limited (ABIL - JSE:ABL).
This to me is a great, easy to understand and rewarding business to be involved. In a nutshell, they lend money that typically falls outside the ambit and risk models of the Big 4 banks.
supposedly these are supposed to be riskier clients but you never here the ABL guys yabbing about the tough environment and how difficult the NCA has made their lives or how tough it is to get ther money back.
They're a tough sharp bunch and at present the company is paying a dividend yield of just under 10%. Definately not the worst deal around and something I put in my share portfolio as something of a buy-and-hold investment....
The market liked the results and the share was up strongly about 6%
Just a thought - use it, don't use.
By "The Other Bank" I of course refer to African Bank Investments Limited (ABIL - JSE:ABL).
This to me is a great, easy to understand and rewarding business to be involved. In a nutshell, they lend money that typically falls outside the ambit and risk models of the Big 4 banks.
supposedly these are supposed to be riskier clients but you never here the ABL guys yabbing about the tough environment and how difficult the NCA has made their lives or how tough it is to get ther money back.
They're a tough sharp bunch and at present the company is paying a dividend yield of just under 10%. Definately not the worst deal around and something I put in my share portfolio as something of a buy-and-hold investment....
The market liked the results and the share was up strongly about 6%
Just a thought - use it, don't use.
Gold shares fly
I'm sorry but somebody has to explain these markets to me and why a two-day record breaking rally on the Dow is all that exciting??
Locally SA markets took off like a bat outta hell with the Gold index adding some 17%.
The gold price rallied nicely on Friday and added a few more dollars today.
On the SA market the unhedged producers such as Harmony Gold (22%) and Gold Fields (21%) had a very pleasant day. The Newgold ETF also made some nice gains but nowhere near as spectacular....
In the bigger picture, the gold index isn't a particular heavyweight (but we did touch on it in a recent post), but I think South Africans just have this affinity with Gold...
But scrape beneath the surface and the safe haven metal is the one flying and getting everyone all worked up in the last 72 hours. The reality is that the market is on the move because the US government has agreed to bail out another financial services firm....
These are the headlines on Bloomberg to prove my point:
- Citigroup Gets $306 Billion Shield From Losses, Capital After Stock Dive
- Home Resales in U.S. Fall as Foreclosures Push Prices Down Most on Record
- BlackRock Fires Four Managers, Six Analysts in First Cuts in Its History
- Fed Must Speed Aid to Auto Credit Units, Schumer Says
- AIG Auto Unit to Drop Damaged Brand to Help Sale
- New York May Lose 225,000 Jobs, Comptroller Says
- Obama Vows Bold Moves to Avoid Millions of Lost Jobs
And this is grounds for a rebound??
Two solid days of gains is pretty hard to disagree with but I still maintain that you're buying into a sucker rally in the short term.....
With the day belonging to Harmony, I thought it only appropriate to post a picture of their Doornkop operations to brighten the blog up a bit....
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Citigroup - Brink of failure
Just when we thought we were out of the woods, the bear comes snarling along with a prospect of failure that threatens to shake the whole system to its roots.
Last week, with the all attention being focused on the Big 3 Detroit auto manufacturers, another major drama was playing itself out. Citigroup - one of the worlds' largest banking institutions was fighting for its life - its failure would rock the global banking sector to its core.
I took this excerpt from an article from Martin Weiss to highlight the issue:
Citigroup, the nation’s second largest banking conglomerate, is on the brink of failure.
Its stock price collapse is the canary in the coal mine, wiping out over nine-tenths of the company’s market cap since its 2007 peak, decimating two-thirds of its value just last week alone.
At the same time, the collapse in its market cap is also the bank’s nail in the coffin, making it virtually impossible for it to raise the capital it desperately needs to save itself.
If it fails, it will be, by far, the largest banking disaster in history, involving $2 trillion in assets. That makes it approximately six times larger than Washington Mutual and three times bigger than Wachovia.
Moreover, the prospect of a failure by Citigroup poses far greater challenges to regulators than a typical large bank. Due to its massive derivatives holdings — side bets on interest rates, currencies, and the probability of defaults by other large corporations — it could be extremely difficult to save Citigroup without serious disruptions, raising serious questions about the global banking system and the world economy.
Read the complete article here...
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/citigroup-failure-imminent-6-28244
The market commentators have come out with that usual line - 'Citi is too big to fail...'
But lets remember that Citi has already announced it is shedding 52000 jobs - sounds like at least something of a failure of circumstances to me... That's a massive figure and when 52000 people come into the unemployment queue or line up outside a soup kitchen, THEN the reality will start to bite.
Forget the auto manufacturers - their 'failure' in one form or another is almost guaranteed - failure of Citi will provide another serious shock to the markets.
I said it on Saturday - don't buy the US rally because there are more shocks in store in the short term....
Last week, with the all attention being focused on the Big 3 Detroit auto manufacturers, another major drama was playing itself out. Citigroup - one of the worlds' largest banking institutions was fighting for its life - its failure would rock the global banking sector to its core.
I took this excerpt from an article from Martin Weiss to highlight the issue:
Citigroup, the nation’s second largest banking conglomerate, is on the brink of failure.
Its stock price collapse is the canary in the coal mine, wiping out over nine-tenths of the company’s market cap since its 2007 peak, decimating two-thirds of its value just last week alone.
At the same time, the collapse in its market cap is also the bank’s nail in the coffin, making it virtually impossible for it to raise the capital it desperately needs to save itself.
If it fails, it will be, by far, the largest banking disaster in history, involving $2 trillion in assets. That makes it approximately six times larger than Washington Mutual and three times bigger than Wachovia.
Moreover, the prospect of a failure by Citigroup poses far greater challenges to regulators than a typical large bank. Due to its massive derivatives holdings — side bets on interest rates, currencies, and the probability of defaults by other large corporations — it could be extremely difficult to save Citigroup without serious disruptions, raising serious questions about the global banking system and the world economy.
Read the complete article here...
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/citigroup-failure-imminent-6-28244
The market commentators have come out with that usual line - 'Citi is too big to fail...'
But lets remember that Citi has already announced it is shedding 52000 jobs - sounds like at least something of a failure of circumstances to me... That's a massive figure and when 52000 people come into the unemployment queue or line up outside a soup kitchen, THEN the reality will start to bite.
Forget the auto manufacturers - their 'failure' in one form or another is almost guaranteed - failure of Citi will provide another serious shock to the markets.
I said it on Saturday - don't buy the US rally because there are more shocks in store in the short term....
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Love it!
Loved this quote from Mark Carney - the Bank of Canada's governor.
Carney was discussing the fallout of the global financial crisis and the number of senior banking executives who have become persona non grata in recent times...
From this article on Bloomberg:
“There is vicious natural selection going on right now in the financial services industry, and it’s appropriate,” Carney said in the interview. “Those who weren’t on top of things are gone or going.”
Carney was discussing the fallout of the global financial crisis and the number of senior banking executives who have become persona non grata in recent times...
From this article on Bloomberg:
“There is vicious natural selection going on right now in the financial services industry, and it’s appropriate,” Carney said in the interview. “Those who weren’t on top of things are gone or going.”
Friday, November 21, 2008
Here Be Dragons...
In late US trade yesterday, stocks on the Dow Jones and S&P500 surged in excess of 6% as President-elect Barack Obama picked New York Federal Reserve Bank chief Timothy Geithner to replace Henry Paulson.
I don’t follow US people too much, but judging from the market reaction, he comes with a good reputation. But on the subject of whether one man can stop what is fast looking like a protracted financial crisis – the jury is still out.
What I thought was an interesting ‘leading’ indicator was the difference in price movements in the platinum and gold prices yesterday. Gold the traditional safe haven, platinum the industrial and ‘luxury’ metal for jewellery.
The gold price shoots up to US$801 an ounce while platinum is marginally firmer around US$824… So in other words the ‘safe’ metal has gone up while the industrial metal (or luxury metal – depending on how you look at it) – which is supposed to indicate that consumer and business confidence may be returning hasn’t got near the same level of ‘emotional’ support from the markets.
Hhhhhmmmmm wonder if the real market is telling us something there>
Don’t get me wrong, I think at these levels the market may be offering some value for long term investors. I’ve been buying index tracking funds for some offshore exposure as well as some SA equities for a while now – but those have got a longer term investment horizon. The point is – if you’re planning to buy in on the rally in the US – I get the sneaky suspicion on my investor map that it should be marked with the Here Be Dragons (HBD) symbol.
Just something else that is worrying me around short term shocks to the SA market… Maria Ramos has just been appointed as the new CEO of Absa (As of 1 March 2009). Ramos and Gill Marcus have denied that there will be any conflict of interest with Trevor Manuel (Ramos’ partner). There is some concern that Ramos being appointed to a major bank may indicate that Manuel may step down next year – we all remember what happened the last time rumours started circulating that he had resigned with all the other cabinet ministers….
I don’t follow US people too much, but judging from the market reaction, he comes with a good reputation. But on the subject of whether one man can stop what is fast looking like a protracted financial crisis – the jury is still out.
What I thought was an interesting ‘leading’ indicator was the difference in price movements in the platinum and gold prices yesterday. Gold the traditional safe haven, platinum the industrial and ‘luxury’ metal for jewellery.
The gold price shoots up to US$801 an ounce while platinum is marginally firmer around US$824… So in other words the ‘safe’ metal has gone up while the industrial metal (or luxury metal – depending on how you look at it) – which is supposed to indicate that consumer and business confidence may be returning hasn’t got near the same level of ‘emotional’ support from the markets.
Hhhhhmmmmm wonder if the real market is telling us something there>
Don’t get me wrong, I think at these levels the market may be offering some value for long term investors. I’ve been buying index tracking funds for some offshore exposure as well as some SA equities for a while now – but those have got a longer term investment horizon. The point is – if you’re planning to buy in on the rally in the US – I get the sneaky suspicion on my investor map that it should be marked with the Here Be Dragons (HBD) symbol.
Just something else that is worrying me around short term shocks to the SA market… Maria Ramos has just been appointed as the new CEO of Absa (As of 1 March 2009). Ramos and Gill Marcus have denied that there will be any conflict of interest with Trevor Manuel (Ramos’ partner). There is some concern that Ramos being appointed to a major bank may indicate that Manuel may step down next year – we all remember what happened the last time rumours started circulating that he had resigned with all the other cabinet ministers….
Gold and (SPlat)inum
After my atrocious call on Impala Platinum as a screaming buy at R180, I’ve tended to stay away from commodity stocks.
Having said that, there’s an interesting thing that I have been watching with half an eye – the gold price is rapidly sneaking up on the platinum price – something that would have sounded completely unrealistic a few months back when platinum was at nearly 2000 dollars an ounce.
This morning, gold was within 31 dollars of platinum. Both metals have moved up a bit on European trade.
Currently gold is trading at 756.6 dollars (up 12 from yesterday) and platinum is trading at 806 (up 37).
The Gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) – GLD – is showing some real strength since September – while most other asset classes are taking stick, the Gold ETF has added value and I don’t think its finished yet either.
The ETF has climbed from around R60 to around R78 which is a pretty healthy return in these tough times. The Gold price itself seems to have established a base at around US$720 and is gaining momentum, the more apparent the trouble in the global economy becomes and the stronger the dollar goes – the better the return on the ETF becomes.
Can’t say whether it will continue to offer good returns for investors but I have added a few to my portfolio in recent months as a form of capital protection.
Having said that, there’s an interesting thing that I have been watching with half an eye – the gold price is rapidly sneaking up on the platinum price – something that would have sounded completely unrealistic a few months back when platinum was at nearly 2000 dollars an ounce.
This morning, gold was within 31 dollars of platinum. Both metals have moved up a bit on European trade.
Currently gold is trading at 756.6 dollars (up 12 from yesterday) and platinum is trading at 806 (up 37).
The Gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) – GLD – is showing some real strength since September – while most other asset classes are taking stick, the Gold ETF has added value and I don’t think its finished yet either.
The ETF has climbed from around R60 to around R78 which is a pretty healthy return in these tough times. The Gold price itself seems to have established a base at around US$720 and is gaining momentum, the more apparent the trouble in the global economy becomes and the stronger the dollar goes – the better the return on the ETF becomes.
Can’t say whether it will continue to offer good returns for investors but I have added a few to my portfolio in recent months as a form of capital protection.
Funny - just got mailed to me
The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.
The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered the final stage, Ali said. ``You may not like our price, but we are not in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to offer the shareholders anything," said Ali.
The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate Ransom Backed Securities. The PRBS`s are backed by the cash flows from future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Moody`s and S&P have already issued their top investment grade ratings for the PRBS`s.
Head pirate, Ubu Kalid
The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered the final stage, Ali said. ``You may not like our price, but we are not in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to offer the shareholders anything," said Ali.
The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate Ransom Backed Securities. The PRBS`s are backed by the cash flows from future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Moody`s and S&P have already issued their top investment grade ratings for the PRBS`s.
Head pirate, Ubu Kalid
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
8000 broken
8000 points has been broken on the Dow with the industrial average now down 427 points...
Up until 3pm in the US, the index was treading water down around 180 points, but looks like the game is over and there is no support - capitulation methinks.
A close below 8000 points is likely to see some continued down side selling pressure in the short term.
A close above 8000 might mean some consolidation here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see continued selling on this index down to at least 7400 in the very near term...
Up until 3pm in the US, the index was treading water down around 180 points, but looks like the game is over and there is no support - capitulation methinks.
A close below 8000 points is likely to see some continued down side selling pressure in the short term.
A close above 8000 might mean some consolidation here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see continued selling on this index down to at least 7400 in the very near term...
No sympathy
A good chirp from one of the old fogeys who was listening to the pleas from the big 3 Detroit auto manufacturers - There's a delicious irony watching private jets flying into Chicago and watching the chief executive officers of the big three Detroit auto manufacturers climb off the planes with their begging bowls out...
Sorry I got no sympathy for these guys - let the market sort out their rubbish....
Sorry I got no sympathy for these guys - let the market sort out their rubbish....
Why AVI shareholders must reject Tiger Brands advances
Earlier this week, Tiger Brands made an unsolicited bid for - or more correctly they said they MIGHT be interested in - listed counterpart AVI Limited. Initially the offer looks like a healthy premium for AVI shareholders and would make sense from a Tiger Brands perspective, but we believe shareholders and management of AVI would be short sighted to accept the deal in the current economic climate.
Read the complete article here.
Read the complete article here.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Sappi / Interwaste and the state of play
Ouch! Poor old Sappi shareholders. Over the last few months, they've seen the company share price battered by the storm on global markets, then there was the announcement that Sappi would buy some of M-Real's European assets which sounded like a good deal until they realised that it would be funded by a highly dilutionary rights issue that saw the price fall to R36 (ex-rights) on Monday.
Let's be real, when your share price has fallen from around R100 a share to R36 a share, your shareholders are going to need a really good excuse to trust you. Reading through the financial press in the last few weeks, pretty much everybody is criticising Sappi for the deal.
But I have an alternative take on it that might make the analysts shiver... but heck what do they know anyway?
My opinion is based on the mentality of The Bigger the Problem, The Bigger the Hammer...
Let's be honest Sappi have a HUGE problem in Europe with a very fragmented paper sector - if they don't sort this situation out, they're going to die a slow death. It's not a great situation to be in, but sometimes a ballsy operator needs to flex its muscles and crack some skulls. I think this is what Sappi has done with this deal - screw the short term cost issues - if they break the back of the fragmented market, then they're well placed for the next upturn in the cycle. I don't think it's the worst deal around.
Interwaste
My other play that I chatted about a while back was Interwaste - I had mentioned that the directors were buying with the share around 40c a share. The share had been hammered down from above R1 after they had missed their earnings forecast twice this year.
Waste management is a no-brainer industry in the long term. The sector can only grow as the world continues to generate more and more waste products that need to be managed.
As the only listed option - with Enviroserv having been delisted - a bit of interest in the Interwaste offering might be justified.
The SA market currently has 3 players in the sector that dominate the large contracts. Barriers to entry are high anyway so this situation is probably not going to change in the next few years.
The share has bounced a bit in the last few weeks to trade around 70c. Might be an interesting play for long term value investors.
Let's be real, when your share price has fallen from around R100 a share to R36 a share, your shareholders are going to need a really good excuse to trust you. Reading through the financial press in the last few weeks, pretty much everybody is criticising Sappi for the deal.
But I have an alternative take on it that might make the analysts shiver... but heck what do they know anyway?
My opinion is based on the mentality of The Bigger the Problem, The Bigger the Hammer...
Let's be honest Sappi have a HUGE problem in Europe with a very fragmented paper sector - if they don't sort this situation out, they're going to die a slow death. It's not a great situation to be in, but sometimes a ballsy operator needs to flex its muscles and crack some skulls. I think this is what Sappi has done with this deal - screw the short term cost issues - if they break the back of the fragmented market, then they're well placed for the next upturn in the cycle. I don't think it's the worst deal around.
Interwaste
My other play that I chatted about a while back was Interwaste - I had mentioned that the directors were buying with the share around 40c a share. The share had been hammered down from above R1 after they had missed their earnings forecast twice this year.
Waste management is a no-brainer industry in the long term. The sector can only grow as the world continues to generate more and more waste products that need to be managed.
As the only listed option - with Enviroserv having been delisted - a bit of interest in the Interwaste offering might be justified.
The SA market currently has 3 players in the sector that dominate the large contracts. Barriers to entry are high anyway so this situation is probably not going to change in the next few years.
The share has bounced a bit in the last few weeks to trade around 70c. Might be an interesting play for long term value investors.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Banking job cuts
Wow! Citigroup is planning to slash around 50000 jobs in the next few months, that’s an enormous figure in any job landscape but will be particular noticeable in the banking landscape.
HSBC, the other banking firm confirmed it was in the process of cutting another 500 jobs as well which highlights just how serious the problem is becoming.
Pondering on whether to go short on SA banks going forward…
Friday, November 14, 2008
Storm has passed? I don't think so....
I know I keep yapping on about the subject, but watching this rally in the US and Asia markets makes me laugh...
We can yab on about how the G20 is going to get together at their tea party and talk about resolving the financial crisis and maybe throw a bit more money at the big companies like GM, but at the end of the day, if you want a leading indicator to why we're going to keep heading down - you look at the job market...
The US yesterday reported its highest level of people applying for unemployment insurance.
Read the headlines on Bloomberg and other news sites and you'll start to see the problem coming:
- Investec headcount under scrutiny
- BT to slash 10000 jobs
- RBS to cut 3000 jobs by March 09
- If GM goes bankrupt - US unemployment would jump by 3%
- General Motors in South Africa slashes jobs
- SA Post Office (and SAA) cut jobs
- Chelsea football club has to sell players before it can buy new ones
Etc Etc... blah blah blah...
I watched Steven Koseff of Investec on TV presenting his company's interim results yesterday and I laughed when he said: "The eye of the storm has passed."
How in the world can the eye of the storm have passed when the companies are only just STARTING to announce their job cuts?!
The economics of it are simple - jobs are disappearing from the market and they are not being replaced. In the US consumers are drowing under 900 billion dollars of credit card debt alone. The situation in SA is nowhere near the same levels per creditor, but its big enough for the bankers to worry.
Those creditors who owe hundreds of millions on their credit cards, are the ones going out of jobs. When their cash flow disappears and they can't limp from month to month then what? They're certainly not going to be buying houses, using your banking infrastructure, credit bingeing, investing or any of the like.
Job losses are now a reality - the longer and deeper they go on for, the tougher things become.
Sorry - I can't believe that the storm has passed and we're anywhere near the bottom.
We can yab on about how the G20 is going to get together at their tea party and talk about resolving the financial crisis and maybe throw a bit more money at the big companies like GM, but at the end of the day, if you want a leading indicator to why we're going to keep heading down - you look at the job market...
The US yesterday reported its highest level of people applying for unemployment insurance.
Read the headlines on Bloomberg and other news sites and you'll start to see the problem coming:
- Investec headcount under scrutiny
- BT to slash 10000 jobs
- RBS to cut 3000 jobs by March 09
- If GM goes bankrupt - US unemployment would jump by 3%
- General Motors in South Africa slashes jobs
- SA Post Office (and SAA) cut jobs
- Chelsea football club has to sell players before it can buy new ones
Etc Etc... blah blah blah...
I watched Steven Koseff of Investec on TV presenting his company's interim results yesterday and I laughed when he said: "The eye of the storm has passed."
How in the world can the eye of the storm have passed when the companies are only just STARTING to announce their job cuts?!
The economics of it are simple - jobs are disappearing from the market and they are not being replaced. In the US consumers are drowing under 900 billion dollars of credit card debt alone. The situation in SA is nowhere near the same levels per creditor, but its big enough for the bankers to worry.
Those creditors who owe hundreds of millions on their credit cards, are the ones going out of jobs. When their cash flow disappears and they can't limp from month to month then what? They're certainly not going to be buying houses, using your banking infrastructure, credit bingeing, investing or any of the like.
Job losses are now a reality - the longer and deeper they go on for, the tougher things become.
Sorry - I can't believe that the storm has passed and we're anywhere near the bottom.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Too big to fail?
With the US automakers in dire straits at the moment, I’ve read a lot of commentary that says General Motors, Ford and Chrysler are “too big to fail” and the government HAS to bail them out. In Old Mutual, South Africa has its own business that in theory is “too big to fail”, but one that I am going to stick my neck out and say can and will fail.
Do I think the US carmakers will be bailed out? Yes I do.
Do I think it will solve their problem? Not a sausage.
Let’s be realistic – the operating environments for these car manufacturers is not going to change over 2009. The reality is that even if they cut some costs, shut down some lines etc, the US tax payer is going to have to acknowledge that when they cross that fat black line of bailouts, they’re going to be tied into paying at least another year of bailouts to make for an orderly exit.
Lets pick an arbitrary figure of US$15bn per quarter to keep these 3 firms afloat – that is 60 BILLION dollars a year just to keep 3 businesses afloat. With the GM and Ford Credit arms being so stretched, I see this house of cards collapsing and THAT will be the shock to the system that leads me to my next assertion – the straw that breaks the back of Old Mutual.
Old Mutual is a funny business. Very successful in the Nordic regions and South Africa, management instead has decided that its real future lies in places like China and the US. So far the expansion plans have been littered with very expensive failures, that the company has been able to gloss over with the impressive gains in the equity markets.
Over the last few 12 months the company has plummeted from R23 odd a share to around R8.50 a share. Ouch. In the meantime they paid over the top for an acquisition in China and they’ve been pissing into the wind with something like US$400m in capital to deal with problems in their Bermuda book and the US life operations.
The company has said that shareholders shouldn’t worry because it has US0.8bn in capital reserves but this figure does exclude money they need to still release for their Chinese acquisition and a final dividend which now looks increasingly under threat.
But something occurred to me the other day – Old Mutual’s capital problem is two-fold. They may have the capital – but where does that capital sit? In London or in SA? The answer is that a big chunk of that capital in fact sits in South Africa (one of the few places where they are making good money).
Foreign exchange regulations are going to be very tough to move that capital off shore should their international ops take much more strain. At the end of the day, if they sell off Mutual & Federal, the capital will remain in South Africa, as would a big chunk of an asset such as Nedbank.
I personally don’t think Old Mutual’s (international operations) can survive the shocks to the system that another (sudden) 15% decline in equity markets could produce. But more importantly it’s the operating environment that has me the most worried.
A mistake I think is being made, in that we’re not giving enough credit to the ‘suddenness’ of events.
Six months ago, we didn’t ‘expect’ to be discussion trillion dollar bailouts and the failure of some of the world biggest companies.
People are going to lose their jobs and it is not going to be a gradual dip spread out over next year, where systems can adjust. People are losing their jobs NOW, businesses are closing down NOW, governments are retrenching people NOW.
Consumers are stretched beyond breaking point – there is no savings base of any kind behind them – their cash is gone and the only way they can keep going is to source credit. When that tap is turned off they cut expenses – insurance, medical aid, pension fund contributions (which they will cash out irrespective of tax consequences – when you need money you need money).
Conclusion
While Old Mutual’s South African operations will probably survive, I suspect that the risk of failure in its international businesses must be extremely high at the moment. SA will probably be cushioned by a pretty strong business model (despite the grief they are given) and the cash flow from the sale of Mutual & Federal, even if they walk away with far less than the business should be worth….
Do I think the US carmakers will be bailed out? Yes I do.
Do I think it will solve their problem? Not a sausage.
Let’s be realistic – the operating environments for these car manufacturers is not going to change over 2009. The reality is that even if they cut some costs, shut down some lines etc, the US tax payer is going to have to acknowledge that when they cross that fat black line of bailouts, they’re going to be tied into paying at least another year of bailouts to make for an orderly exit.
Lets pick an arbitrary figure of US$15bn per quarter to keep these 3 firms afloat – that is 60 BILLION dollars a year just to keep 3 businesses afloat. With the GM and Ford Credit arms being so stretched, I see this house of cards collapsing and THAT will be the shock to the system that leads me to my next assertion – the straw that breaks the back of Old Mutual.
Old Mutual is a funny business. Very successful in the Nordic regions and South Africa, management instead has decided that its real future lies in places like China and the US. So far the expansion plans have been littered with very expensive failures, that the company has been able to gloss over with the impressive gains in the equity markets.
Over the last few 12 months the company has plummeted from R23 odd a share to around R8.50 a share. Ouch. In the meantime they paid over the top for an acquisition in China and they’ve been pissing into the wind with something like US$400m in capital to deal with problems in their Bermuda book and the US life operations.
The company has said that shareholders shouldn’t worry because it has US0.8bn in capital reserves but this figure does exclude money they need to still release for their Chinese acquisition and a final dividend which now looks increasingly under threat.
But something occurred to me the other day – Old Mutual’s capital problem is two-fold. They may have the capital – but where does that capital sit? In London or in SA? The answer is that a big chunk of that capital in fact sits in South Africa (one of the few places where they are making good money).
Foreign exchange regulations are going to be very tough to move that capital off shore should their international ops take much more strain. At the end of the day, if they sell off Mutual & Federal, the capital will remain in South Africa, as would a big chunk of an asset such as Nedbank.
I personally don’t think Old Mutual’s (international operations) can survive the shocks to the system that another (sudden) 15% decline in equity markets could produce. But more importantly it’s the operating environment that has me the most worried.
A mistake I think is being made, in that we’re not giving enough credit to the ‘suddenness’ of events.
Six months ago, we didn’t ‘expect’ to be discussion trillion dollar bailouts and the failure of some of the world biggest companies.
People are going to lose their jobs and it is not going to be a gradual dip spread out over next year, where systems can adjust. People are losing their jobs NOW, businesses are closing down NOW, governments are retrenching people NOW.
Consumers are stretched beyond breaking point – there is no savings base of any kind behind them – their cash is gone and the only way they can keep going is to source credit. When that tap is turned off they cut expenses – insurance, medical aid, pension fund contributions (which they will cash out irrespective of tax consequences – when you need money you need money).
Conclusion
While Old Mutual’s South African operations will probably survive, I suspect that the risk of failure in its international businesses must be extremely high at the moment. SA will probably be cushioned by a pretty strong business model (despite the grief they are given) and the cash flow from the sale of Mutual & Federal, even if they walk away with far less than the business should be worth….
Sunday, November 9, 2008
I noticed that Asia has opened up quite strongly this morning on the back of the China announcing it will be injecting US$586bn into its economy to provide the ‘noodle powerhouse’ from slipping into recession.
Reading the other news headlines on Bloomberg, here is some of the other news making the headlines today:
- Franklin Bank of
- Zero-Interest-Rate World Looms as King, Trichet Race to Salvage Economies
- GMAC Leaves `Mom and Pop Investors' With $15 Billion of Auto Lender's Junk
- Disney Retreats After Iger Says Theme-Park Bookings Decline `Considerably'
- Down and Out in
I read the headlines in
Here are a couple that spring to mind:
- Fascination books closed its doors costing around 300 jobs
- SAA is ‘retrenching’ 200+ call centre workers that MIGHT be absorbed by their outsourcing partner
- Mutual & Federal has shed 600 back office jobs since July this year
- Ford is looking at 800+ jobs over the next few months
- General Motors SA is looking at 2000 jobs before Christmas this year
- A local fluorspar mine has closed down – 200+ jobs
- The chairman of Anglo American has said that more half the world’s zinc and nickel mines are non profitable due to the fall in commodity prices
- The super profitable platinum mines of 6 months ago are now trading sorely in the red with the fall in the commodity prices… and the motor industry which is a major purchaser of their product is in a very bad way (even
- The number of motor dealerships in
5000 pension plans linked to the SA stock market indirectly, 5000 people who have debt of some level or other to service. 5000 people who will look to any investments they have and liquidate them to provide cash to cover their living expenses….
And this from an economy that is ‘sheltered’…
We seem to be looking at the problem saying: “Ah well we’ve sorted out the capital levels of the banks, so we should be fine.”
What crap…If you ask me whether I think there is some good longer term value in the market, then my answer is that of course there is. But I said it before – these rally’s are not the start of the next bull market. As far as I am concerned, these rally’s are spikes on the way down and they should be viewed as such.
Sekunjalo
I’ve blogged on Sekunjalo before saying I quite like the story. About two months back I sold out of my holdings to enter another trading position.
Last week they announced that they had taken an equity stake in BTSA and the market suddenly got a little excited about them and they started to trade up ahead of their results which are due out shortly.
For what it is worth, I chatted to somebody who was at the press announcement where Sekunjalo and BT announced their deal and the feedback was that the Sekunjalo team had no idea what they actually had bought and couldn’t really discuss what the advantage of the transaction was.
Obviously this is second hand feedback but my source is normally a pretty good judge and if he wasn’t convinced, then neither am I…
Just an FYI…
Last week they announced that they had taken an equity stake in BTSA and the market suddenly got a little excited about them and they started to trade up ahead of their results which are due out shortly.
For what it is worth, I chatted to somebody who was at the press announcement where Sekunjalo and BT announced their deal and the feedback was that the Sekunjalo team had no idea what they actually had bought and couldn’t really discuss what the advantage of the transaction was.
Obviously this is second hand feedback but my source is normally a pretty good judge and if he wasn’t convinced, then neither am I…
Just an FYI…
NinjaTrader
Following a number of the local trading boards in South Africa, I've been hearing a lot of talk about this NinjaTrader platform.
I haven't used it but from the feedback I've received and the things I've read, I believe that it is extremely successful.
If you are a user of NinjaTrader please put your comments below about how successful this platform is and some of its strengths and weaknesses.
About NinjaTrader
Founded in 2003, NinjaTrader, LLC is a leading developer of high-performance trading software for the active trader. The company’s NinjaTrader software is a complete end to end trading platform serving discretionary and automated traders of futures, equities and forex markets. NinjaTrader is available at over 100 brokerages worldwide and is promoted by the industry’s leading trading educators and providers of 3rd party technical indicators and trading systems. The NinjaTrader platform is free to use for advanced charting, analytics, system development and trade simulation.
NinjaTrader sets the benchmark for trading software and continues to invest in new product development. Based in Denver, CO, NinjaTrader serves the global trading community with locations in Grand Rapids, MI, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and Bamberg, Germany.
I haven't used it but from the feedback I've received and the things I've read, I believe that it is extremely successful.
If you are a user of NinjaTrader please put your comments below about how successful this platform is and some of its strengths and weaknesses.
About NinjaTrader
Founded in 2003, NinjaTrader, LLC is a leading developer of high-performance trading software for the active trader. The company’s NinjaTrader software is a complete end to end trading platform serving discretionary and automated traders of futures, equities and forex markets. NinjaTrader is available at over 100 brokerages worldwide and is promoted by the industry’s leading trading educators and providers of 3rd party technical indicators and trading systems. The NinjaTrader platform is free to use for advanced charting, analytics, system development and trade simulation.
NinjaTrader sets the benchmark for trading software and continues to invest in new product development. Based in Denver, CO, NinjaTrader serves the global trading community with locations in Grand Rapids, MI, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and Bamberg, Germany.
Hahahhahaha
For all the bulls out there who reckon we've hit a bottom in global equity markets and its safe to come out of hiding....
This picture was mailed to me from a trading colleague!
Hhhhmmmm - the bear still got some pretty sharp teeth huh??
This picture was mailed to me from a trading colleague!
Hhhhmmmm - the bear still got some pretty sharp teeth huh??
Thursday, November 6, 2008
I don't get it!
But Barack Obama has won, the world should be rejoicing that the leader of the free world is back in sensible hands... we hope...
Since Obama won the election, the Dow Jones has declined nearly 1000 points (more than 9%) - there's no patriot rally going on here.
A big contributor to this was the announcement by Toyota that it expected operating profit to decline some 56% next year. If it had been BMW or Mercedes or one of the luxury brands, then yeah maybe I could have understood it - but Toyota which services the ordinary 'pleb' market - geez things must be bad...
Ok - if you haven't worked it out, I'm in something of a sarky mood this morning. But I'll live.
The JSE all share index fell more than 3.4% yesterday resuming the downward trend. My personal opinion is that we are going to see the All Share Index trading at or around the 18 000 level by the end of 2008.
The way I see it playing out is that we're going to see the odd big down day, followed by some bottom feeders coming into the market and then after the middle of November, the fund managers are going to say - 'enough! We're going to sit on the sidelines until 2009 starts'. This is probably going to have the affect of a gradual downward drift.
My Strategy
Is it going to create opportunities? I think so - but don't expect to see any returns on it during 2009.
I read a report that SA asset manager Allan Gray was expecting the JSE to move down to the mid 16000 level over the next four years. A couple of other investors I know indicate that this is likely to continue lower than this.
Tough one to call, but logically if you have nice spread of assets, you should be able to generate some income and with any luck position yourself at relatively low entry points, to take advantage of the next upward moves in markets.
As mentioned in my previous post, I've got my grubby little paws on small cap pharma firm Bioscience Brands. I've discussed the prospects for this business in previous posts, so I'm not going to touch on it again.
Next on my shopping list is to add to my Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and Property (Fixed income) holdings.
I've got some exposure to the Japanese economy through my DBXJP and to balance it out I'm going to switch my attention to the US economy. My logic is very simple and basic here - for all the doom and gloom that America is a dying economy, it is also one of the world's biggest and most sophisticated - Getting some exposure to the hard dollar earnings here is attractive for a South African investor, particularly when the US is out of favour. For this reason, I'm going to pick up a few of the DBXUS, exchange traded fund.
Property and fixed income are also an important component of any balanced portfolio. The distributions that these guys throw off, mean that you can benefit from some capital appreciation as well as the cash flow. My prefered property stock is the Apexhi-B units. I'm a little bit worried about the increasing vacancies in the shopping malls around the country, but not worried enough to stop me buying into quality portfolios such as those managed by Apex-hi and Growthpoint.
I think for many of us ordinary investors who don't have benchmarks to beat, we have to accept that we are buying into downward trends, but we are not trying to pick the bottom of the market - we're trying to build a valuable portfolio, one small brick at a time....
Since Obama won the election, the Dow Jones has declined nearly 1000 points (more than 9%) - there's no patriot rally going on here.
A big contributor to this was the announcement by Toyota that it expected operating profit to decline some 56% next year. If it had been BMW or Mercedes or one of the luxury brands, then yeah maybe I could have understood it - but Toyota which services the ordinary 'pleb' market - geez things must be bad...
Ok - if you haven't worked it out, I'm in something of a sarky mood this morning. But I'll live.
The JSE all share index fell more than 3.4% yesterday resuming the downward trend. My personal opinion is that we are going to see the All Share Index trading at or around the 18 000 level by the end of 2008.
The way I see it playing out is that we're going to see the odd big down day, followed by some bottom feeders coming into the market and then after the middle of November, the fund managers are going to say - 'enough! We're going to sit on the sidelines until 2009 starts'. This is probably going to have the affect of a gradual downward drift.
My Strategy
Is it going to create opportunities? I think so - but don't expect to see any returns on it during 2009.
I read a report that SA asset manager Allan Gray was expecting the JSE to move down to the mid 16000 level over the next four years. A couple of other investors I know indicate that this is likely to continue lower than this.
Tough one to call, but logically if you have nice spread of assets, you should be able to generate some income and with any luck position yourself at relatively low entry points, to take advantage of the next upward moves in markets.
As mentioned in my previous post, I've got my grubby little paws on small cap pharma firm Bioscience Brands. I've discussed the prospects for this business in previous posts, so I'm not going to touch on it again.
Next on my shopping list is to add to my Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and Property (Fixed income) holdings.
I've got some exposure to the Japanese economy through my DBXJP and to balance it out I'm going to switch my attention to the US economy. My logic is very simple and basic here - for all the doom and gloom that America is a dying economy, it is also one of the world's biggest and most sophisticated - Getting some exposure to the hard dollar earnings here is attractive for a South African investor, particularly when the US is out of favour. For this reason, I'm going to pick up a few of the DBXUS, exchange traded fund.
Property and fixed income are also an important component of any balanced portfolio. The distributions that these guys throw off, mean that you can benefit from some capital appreciation as well as the cash flow. My prefered property stock is the Apexhi-B units. I'm a little bit worried about the increasing vacancies in the shopping malls around the country, but not worried enough to stop me buying into quality portfolios such as those managed by Apex-hi and Growthpoint.
I think for many of us ordinary investors who don't have benchmarks to beat, we have to accept that we are buying into downward trends, but we are not trying to pick the bottom of the market - we're trying to build a valuable portfolio, one small brick at a time....
Bioscience Brands
Just as an update, I picked up some shares in small cap listed pharma company, Bioscience Brands. I have covered it before as a company I think holds quite a lot of long term potential.
Tried to move my bid around to try and pick them up between 4c and 6c yesterday, but ultimately got them at 7c.
Not a big component of the portfolio but they are definately something that I believe hold some potential to improve strongly over the next few years for the patient investor.
Tried to move my bid around to try and pick them up between 4c and 6c yesterday, but ultimately got them at 7c.
Not a big component of the portfolio but they are definately something that I believe hold some potential to improve strongly over the next few years for the patient investor.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Interesting stat...
Using the Dow Jones industrial average as the benchmark, Stock Trader`s Almanac shows a $10,000 investment compounded during Democratic presidencies since 1901 would be worth $279,705 after 48 years. The same $10,000 investment during 56 Republican years would have been worth just $78,699....
(I think this was calculated as at July 2008 and excludes the tumble that we saw in October...)
(I think this was calculated as at July 2008 and excludes the tumble that we saw in October...)
Justrade.com
Bond Exchange of South Africa Limited rolls out the first online binary options exchange in Africa
The Bond Exchange of South Africa Limited (BESA), through a joint venture with Market Tech (Pty) Ltd (Market Tech), is proud to announce the rollout of Africa’s first online binary options exchange, Justrade.com.
Garth Greubel, BESA’s CEO explains, “The rollout of Justrade.com is an important component in the continued growth of our business as we maintain our focus of building better markets and the development of new product lines and revenue streams beyond the realm of our traditional bond franchise.”
The platform is the brainchild of co-founders and directors of Market Tech, Rory Mackay and Michael Franze. Before starting the company, Rory spent his career in financial markets, trading currency, commodities, bonds and interest rate derivatives at ABSA, Standard Bank (SCMB) and Investec. Michael has a thorough understanding of telecommunications and has operated as a consultant in the past two years, particularly fixed mobile convergence, whilst at the same time developing the online platform for Justrade.
Says Mackay, “Justrade.com opens the door to trading for individuals and institutions in an efficient, affordable and exciting way.
By allowing our users to choose the way they want to transact via the Justrade or Protrade platforms, both easily accessible on www.justrade.com, we hope to be able to satisfy the needs of novices new to the workings of financial markets, as well as those who are experienced market participants.”
The concept of binary options exchanges, although new to domestic markets, is well established internationally, particularly in the US and the UK. Says Mackay, “In 2007, the Options Clearing Corporation proposed a rule to allow trade in binary options. In 2008, several exchanges began to adopt binary options, including the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOT) and American Stock Exchange. So, whilst binary options are relatively new, their potential has been noticed and embraced by some of the biggest names in the Exchange business.”
Online binary options markets such as Betfair.com in the UK and Intrade.com and HedgeStreet.com in the US are well established. Betfair.com trades more transactions per day than the London Stock Exchange. Intrade.com has turned over USD4 billion since 2002. “Whilst these markets allow for trading in a range of contracts (political, sports or financial), our platform is differentiated by the fact that we offer trade in financial contracts only.” continues Mackay.
Greubel adds, “The joint venture with Market Tech has allowed us to unlock the value inherent in our exchange license, whilst allowing our partners to bring valuable trading and technical expertise to the table. Collectively, these ingredients have been combined to produce Justrade.com, which we look forward to seeing grow in depth and liquidity in coming months.”
The Bond Exchange of South Africa Limited (BESA), through a joint venture with Market Tech (Pty) Ltd (Market Tech), is proud to announce the rollout of Africa’s first online binary options exchange, Justrade.com.
Garth Greubel, BESA’s CEO explains, “The rollout of Justrade.com is an important component in the continued growth of our business as we maintain our focus of building better markets and the development of new product lines and revenue streams beyond the realm of our traditional bond franchise.”
The platform is the brainchild of co-founders and directors of Market Tech, Rory Mackay and Michael Franze. Before starting the company, Rory spent his career in financial markets, trading currency, commodities, bonds and interest rate derivatives at ABSA, Standard Bank (SCMB) and Investec. Michael has a thorough understanding of telecommunications and has operated as a consultant in the past two years, particularly fixed mobile convergence, whilst at the same time developing the online platform for Justrade.
Says Mackay, “Justrade.com opens the door to trading for individuals and institutions in an efficient, affordable and exciting way.
By allowing our users to choose the way they want to transact via the Justrade or Protrade platforms, both easily accessible on www.justrade.com, we hope to be able to satisfy the needs of novices new to the workings of financial markets, as well as those who are experienced market participants.”
The concept of binary options exchanges, although new to domestic markets, is well established internationally, particularly in the US and the UK. Says Mackay, “In 2007, the Options Clearing Corporation proposed a rule to allow trade in binary options. In 2008, several exchanges began to adopt binary options, including the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOT) and American Stock Exchange. So, whilst binary options are relatively new, their potential has been noticed and embraced by some of the biggest names in the Exchange business.”
Online binary options markets such as Betfair.com in the UK and Intrade.com and HedgeStreet.com in the US are well established. Betfair.com trades more transactions per day than the London Stock Exchange. Intrade.com has turned over USD4 billion since 2002. “Whilst these markets allow for trading in a range of contracts (political, sports or financial), our platform is differentiated by the fact that we offer trade in financial contracts only.” continues Mackay.
Greubel adds, “The joint venture with Market Tech has allowed us to unlock the value inherent in our exchange license, whilst allowing our partners to bring valuable trading and technical expertise to the table. Collectively, these ingredients have been combined to produce Justrade.com, which we look forward to seeing grow in depth and liquidity in coming months.”
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Shopping list
With equity markets finally taking a bit of a breather from the non-stop selling pressure, quite a few people have been talking about what shares are on their shopping lists.
You've seen my previous posts about not believing that we have seen the bottom of this sell-off so I thought I would take the time to touch on the 6 shares that are on my shopping list and provide some idea as to why I thought they were attractive.
BioScience Brands (BIO) - This is a high risk pick but I like the story and I think at its current levels it should be 'money for jam'now that new management has been installed and pushing for corporate action to build mass here. Given time I can see this share comfortably trebling.
ApexHi-B (APB) Units - A big part of my strategy has revolved around portfolio rebuilding and developing a consistent supply of income and dividends for reinvestment. My two prefered property picks were Apexhi-B and Growthpoint properties and APB happened to be next on my shopping list.
Deutsche Bank US index X-Tracker (DBXUS) - I'm a fan of exchange traded funds (ETF) and I've already taken a position in the Japanese markets, so I've hedged a bit with some exposure to the US market now. Quarterly US distributions and the US dollar 'hard currency' exposure are a theme in my portfolio.
African Bank Ltd (ABL) - Abil has been a favourite stock of mine, despite the segment of the market that they serve (micro-lending) / higher risk clients. Credit where credit is due - these guys have managed to handle risk better than any of the big four banks despite playing in a very tough segment of the market. The company is also very cash generative, generous with their dividends and are well positioned to buy up some nice assets should the opportunity present itself.
Grindrod (GND) - I've touched on my reasons why I like Grindrod in a previous post, so I'm not going to repeat it.
ZSHARESGOVI - This is another ETF that is issued by Investec. Basically this is tracking the South African bond market. For some exposure to the bond market, I think this is a nice way to split up the portfolio a bit.
Anyways that's where I'm looking - you probably won't find those on the shopping list of too many other institutional fund management experts (except maybe Grindrod), but I'm happy with those calls...
You've seen my previous posts about not believing that we have seen the bottom of this sell-off so I thought I would take the time to touch on the 6 shares that are on my shopping list and provide some idea as to why I thought they were attractive.
BioScience Brands (BIO) - This is a high risk pick but I like the story and I think at its current levels it should be 'money for jam'now that new management has been installed and pushing for corporate action to build mass here. Given time I can see this share comfortably trebling.
ApexHi-B (APB) Units - A big part of my strategy has revolved around portfolio rebuilding and developing a consistent supply of income and dividends for reinvestment. My two prefered property picks were Apexhi-B and Growthpoint properties and APB happened to be next on my shopping list.
Deutsche Bank US index X-Tracker (DBXUS) - I'm a fan of exchange traded funds (ETF) and I've already taken a position in the Japanese markets, so I've hedged a bit with some exposure to the US market now. Quarterly US distributions and the US dollar 'hard currency' exposure are a theme in my portfolio.
African Bank Ltd (ABL) - Abil has been a favourite stock of mine, despite the segment of the market that they serve (micro-lending) / higher risk clients. Credit where credit is due - these guys have managed to handle risk better than any of the big four banks despite playing in a very tough segment of the market. The company is also very cash generative, generous with their dividends and are well positioned to buy up some nice assets should the opportunity present itself.
Grindrod (GND) - I've touched on my reasons why I like Grindrod in a previous post, so I'm not going to repeat it.
ZSHARESGOVI - This is another ETF that is issued by Investec. Basically this is tracking the South African bond market. For some exposure to the bond market, I think this is a nice way to split up the portfolio a bit.
Anyways that's where I'm looking - you probably won't find those on the shopping list of too many other institutional fund management experts (except maybe Grindrod), but I'm happy with those calls...
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