I have been watching these gold and platinum prices with some interest and this recent sell-off has caught my eye this evening.
Personally I thought gold would hold around the $1320 mark but it went straight through that and maybe $1310 will act as some kind of support level. I think the thing which has surprised me on this front is the reason S&P rating cut in Japan, I thought there might be some money cycled out of there and into precious metal commodities... apparently not yet.
Whatever, I find gold over-rated and really only for the looneys.
The metal which does interest me though is platinum and I've taken a small long position on it at $1790 on the April future. There is nothing complicated about my thinking here... look around SA at the moment, everything is being held together on a shoe-string - roads, traffic lights, rail etc etc. Throw in that the rain has soaked the coal for the power stations and there is now a massive transport strike scheduled for early in February.
If the signs of economic improvement are to be believed and the emphasis on clean energy keeps being punted and that platinum is expected to come out of South Africa then surely you can't go too far wrong backing the metal from here?
On the equity front only two real plays are jumping out at me:
Brait
Rushed up to R26.50 before a cautionary announcement was put out and then the stock slumped to R22 but has subsequently bounced. Good play at these levels considering the dividend
RE:CM & Calibre prefs (RACP)
You can buy RACP at less than the NAV of a cash shell... To me that is simply brain-dead if you believe that Piet Viljoen and his team can generate even the most basic long-term investment return.
With the fun and games in Japan earlier today with the S&P re-rating I reckon Friday could be an interesting day for traders. Let's see who keeps their heads.
Showing posts with label RE:CM and Calibre. Show all posts
Showing posts with label RE:CM and Calibre. Show all posts
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Friday, October 1, 2010
Small cap update - 2 October 2010
Hello fellow traders...
I see it has been a good few months since I last updated this blog which probably does not reflect that well on me.
What DOES however reflect quite well on me is the TrustCo share price over that period.
Let's take a look at some of the small-cap shares that have caught my eye over the last few months and where they are at now.
TrustCo
This share has really done nicely. Since I last blogged it, has risen from the 20's to touch a high of 65c with a lot of media attention. Directors have bought a whole whack of shares as well which has helped the story along.
In September, the company announced transactions with Econet and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) both of which should have an impact on the business.
Still think there is value in it if you are patient.
Interwaste
Share price wise this company has largely gone sideways over the last few months, but it is still up a bit since April.
On the plus side the financial results have shown something of a turnaround from the previous financial year and they have gained a number of new clients - the benefits of which should probably come through in the second half of the year. Guidance from management is that the second half of the year is traditionally stronger as well so let's see what comes through for the full-year.
One thing which needs to be watched a little closely is the cash position of the business.
The company overdraft facility has risen from R4.7m to nearly R30m for the six months ended June 2010. There is also negative cashflow as the business has made some serious capital investments.
For the 12-months, the net cash position had declined to -R21m.
Buildmax
This has been such a mixed bag sometimes I wonder.
The share is up from 27c to 31c and it looks like some serious corrective action is being taken to try and turn this business around.
New management are in place, rights issues have been sorted.
I'm gonna hang on to this one.
IPSA
Little to write home here. The share has gone nowehere.
However this announcement at the end of August will give shareholders some cheer:
"IPSA PLC (AIM: IPSA), the developer, owner and operator of power generation capacity in Southern Africa, announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Newcastle Cogeneration (Pty.) Limited has entered into a power purchase agreement ("PPA") with Eskom, the South African electricity parastatal, under the medium term power purchase programme ("MTPPP"). Under the new PPA all electricity output from the plant would be sold to Eskom for the period to 31 March 2015, and is based on 13 MW of capacity."
Again lets see what this translates into operationally.
RE:CM and Calibre
I got my hands on a few of these pref-shares last month and will try and get a few more as time goes by. I like Piet Viljoen in terms of his style of value investing and would like to think he can add value through this vehicle.
The share listed at R10 and has floated somewhere between R10 and R11 but there has been really limited liquidity so that is something that makes this tricky to watch.
Viljoen said that investors should expect "slow and steady" to start with so if you have a long-term investment horizon, then I'd probably be adding a few more of these to the portfolio as well.
Some others to consider
Three other stocks I have nibbled at in the last few months are Nigerian oil and gas group Oando, private equity fund Brait and Paladin Capital.
There seems to be some action happening at Paladin as the share price has risen more than 20% in the last few weeks. However this puts it well above its net asset value which is not always that easy to justify buying at the moment.
I see it has been a good few months since I last updated this blog which probably does not reflect that well on me.
What DOES however reflect quite well on me is the TrustCo share price over that period.
Let's take a look at some of the small-cap shares that have caught my eye over the last few months and where they are at now.
TrustCo
This share has really done nicely. Since I last blogged it, has risen from the 20's to touch a high of 65c with a lot of media attention. Directors have bought a whole whack of shares as well which has helped the story along.
In September, the company announced transactions with Econet and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) both of which should have an impact on the business.
Still think there is value in it if you are patient.
Interwaste
Share price wise this company has largely gone sideways over the last few months, but it is still up a bit since April.
On the plus side the financial results have shown something of a turnaround from the previous financial year and they have gained a number of new clients - the benefits of which should probably come through in the second half of the year. Guidance from management is that the second half of the year is traditionally stronger as well so let's see what comes through for the full-year.
One thing which needs to be watched a little closely is the cash position of the business.
The company overdraft facility has risen from R4.7m to nearly R30m for the six months ended June 2010. There is also negative cashflow as the business has made some serious capital investments.
For the 12-months, the net cash position had declined to -R21m.
Buildmax
This has been such a mixed bag sometimes I wonder.
The share is up from 27c to 31c and it looks like some serious corrective action is being taken to try and turn this business around.
New management are in place, rights issues have been sorted.
I'm gonna hang on to this one.
IPSA
Little to write home here. The share has gone nowehere.
However this announcement at the end of August will give shareholders some cheer:
"IPSA PLC (AIM: IPSA), the developer, owner and operator of power generation capacity in Southern Africa, announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Newcastle Cogeneration (Pty.) Limited has entered into a power purchase agreement ("PPA") with Eskom, the South African electricity parastatal, under the medium term power purchase programme ("MTPPP"). Under the new PPA all electricity output from the plant would be sold to Eskom for the period to 31 March 2015, and is based on 13 MW of capacity."
Again lets see what this translates into operationally.
RE:CM and Calibre
I got my hands on a few of these pref-shares last month and will try and get a few more as time goes by. I like Piet Viljoen in terms of his style of value investing and would like to think he can add value through this vehicle.
The share listed at R10 and has floated somewhere between R10 and R11 but there has been really limited liquidity so that is something that makes this tricky to watch.
Viljoen said that investors should expect "slow and steady" to start with so if you have a long-term investment horizon, then I'd probably be adding a few more of these to the portfolio as well.
Some others to consider
Three other stocks I have nibbled at in the last few months are Nigerian oil and gas group Oando, private equity fund Brait and Paladin Capital.
There seems to be some action happening at Paladin as the share price has risen more than 20% in the last few weeks. However this puts it well above its net asset value which is not always that easy to justify buying at the moment.
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