Thursday, January 27, 2011

Liking platinum

I have been watching these gold and platinum prices with some interest and this recent sell-off has caught my eye this evening.

Personally I thought gold would hold around the $1320 mark but it went straight through that and maybe $1310 will act as some kind of support level. I think the thing which has surprised me on this front is the reason S&P rating cut in Japan, I thought there might be some money cycled out of there and into precious metal commodities... apparently not yet.

Whatever, I find gold over-rated and really only for the looneys.

The metal which does interest me though is platinum and I've taken a small long position on it at $1790 on the April future. There is nothing complicated about my thinking here... look around SA at the moment, everything is being held together on a shoe-string - roads, traffic lights, rail etc etc. Throw in that the rain has soaked the coal for the power stations and there is now a massive transport strike scheduled for early in February.

If the signs of economic improvement are to be believed and the emphasis on clean energy keeps being punted and that platinum is expected to come out of South Africa then surely you can't go too far wrong backing the metal from here?

On the equity front only two real plays are jumping out at me:

Brait
Rushed up to R26.50 before a cautionary announcement was put out and then the stock slumped to R22 but has subsequently bounced. Good play at these levels considering the dividend

RE:CM & Calibre prefs (RACP)
You can buy RACP at less than the NAV of a cash shell... To me that is simply brain-dead if you believe that Piet Viljoen and his team can generate even the most basic long-term investment return.

With the fun and games in Japan earlier today with the S&P re-rating I reckon Friday could be an interesting day for traders. Let's see who keeps their heads.

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