It has been a while since I put something down on this blog. It has been a tough couple of months for traders and investors alike. Market doesn't want to go higher due to the Euro debt crisis despite there clearly being some compelling valuations.
Here are the trades I am still playing with plus one new trade:
Old Mutual at under R14 (ADDED)
I'm not a huge fan of insurers but Old Mutual has a lot going for it. Its being tarred with the Euro crisis but remember that a lot of its profits come from South African operations and a lot of its valuation is linked to its stake in Nedbank. It is battling to kick on at the moment but Goldman Sachs recently upgraded the share to a buy.
Nikkei
As mentioned in the previous post, there has been a pretty predictable 9400 - 9800 band starting to form. Everybody is talking Japan at the moment and how cheap it is. You don't even have to believe in a super rebound in the markets to score. Scale 250 - 350 points each time and you can build a decent return here.
Brait at R17.50
Sure there is a lot of speculation around Brait at the moment, but it has two very solid assets underneath it in the form of Pep and Premier Foods. As it stands you are basically getting these businesses plus some cash and paying next to nothing for the other assets. Sure in some cases you probably shouldn't be paying much for them and without the dividend Brait is a less compelling investment story but if they can stick to generate long-term ROE of 20% odd you are going to find few investments that can match this.
African Bank Investments Limited
I maintain what I said in the earlier post - you get a dividend of 5%, you have a solid and cash generative business on an undemanding price to earnings multiple which doesn't have to support capital intensive investment banking businesses. Simple, stupid kind of investment?
Vividend Income Fund
Another of those investments which slot into the simple, stupid investment category is Vividend. There is nothing complicated about this new property listing. It is ungeared, nice portfolio and with a well respected management. You are picking up about 6% yield after tax and the price is off its highs. Definately worth a nibble.
Nothing else really jumping out at me.
I quite like the new Africa ETN from Standard Bank and have added a debit order for it from next month. Will see how that product evolves.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
And all I got was this lousy birth certificate....
The world has woken to the news that public enemy number 1 (well at least the US enemy number 1) - Osama Bin Laden - has been killed in a mansion in Pakistan in a joint special forces attack. It has been almost 10 years since that fateful day since September 11th and you can understand the relief in the US that this fight has been "won".
The cynic in me suggests that this news probably puts paid to Donald Trumps presidential ambitions.... All he could produce was a birth certificate of sorts for Barack Obama....
... no wonder Obama thought he probably was justified in taking a dig at the property billionaire in the press conference yesterday.
So what does this mean for markets and trading?
- I gotta fess up. Friday's spike in Gold burnt me and I was stopped out there.
- Still in with my short oil from $125 and long US$ / short Japanese Yen trade
In my head I had suspected a bit more of a "patriot rally" in terms of the US dollar but lets wait it out. The yen is weakening and as the rest of global markets digest the news, there might be a bit more enthusiasm for the trade.
Oil at $125 is in my humble opinion overbought and being driven by this commodity bubble and being held up unnaturally high with social tensions in places like Libya, Syria, Egypt etc. But there is nothing new in these areas to suggest that this kind of price is justified, especially with economic data suggesting the economy is staggering.
I do agree with the early analysis from STRATFOR that this probably means that the US can hasten its departure from Afghanistan. While the US has made a lot of noise about its humanitarian support / obligations to the region, the fight has been going on for 9 and a half years and Americans are tired of this battle. Since the initial "shock and awe" they've been left fighting for a country which is politically and economically worthless.
With the US elections around the corner, it will do a lot for popularity ratings to show US soldiers packing their bags and heading home to their loved ones. US soldiers departing the Middle East will invariably be good publicity in the near-term.
So for now I'll stay short oil and long the dollar... counter-intuitive maybe but its probably about time the world started to settle down for a bit and put this chapter behind us.
The cynic in me suggests that this news probably puts paid to Donald Trumps presidential ambitions.... All he could produce was a birth certificate of sorts for Barack Obama....
... no wonder Obama thought he probably was justified in taking a dig at the property billionaire in the press conference yesterday.
So what does this mean for markets and trading?
- I gotta fess up. Friday's spike in Gold burnt me and I was stopped out there.
- Still in with my short oil from $125 and long US$ / short Japanese Yen trade
In my head I had suspected a bit more of a "patriot rally" in terms of the US dollar but lets wait it out. The yen is weakening and as the rest of global markets digest the news, there might be a bit more enthusiasm for the trade.
Oil at $125 is in my humble opinion overbought and being driven by this commodity bubble and being held up unnaturally high with social tensions in places like Libya, Syria, Egypt etc. But there is nothing new in these areas to suggest that this kind of price is justified, especially with economic data suggesting the economy is staggering.
I do agree with the early analysis from STRATFOR that this probably means that the US can hasten its departure from Afghanistan. While the US has made a lot of noise about its humanitarian support / obligations to the region, the fight has been going on for 9 and a half years and Americans are tired of this battle. Since the initial "shock and awe" they've been left fighting for a country which is politically and economically worthless.
With the US elections around the corner, it will do a lot for popularity ratings to show US soldiers packing their bags and heading home to their loved ones. US soldiers departing the Middle East will invariably be good publicity in the near-term.
So for now I'll stay short oil and long the dollar... counter-intuitive maybe but its probably about time the world started to settle down for a bit and put this chapter behind us.
Monday, April 18, 2011
April update
So those dumb-asses at S&P decided to downgrade the US of A this afternoon and caused some proper kak in the markets today. Stocks are down, dollar is down, metals are up… I’m so excited to see a bit of volatility.
Certainly not the prettiest market around at the moment but at least if you’re looking for some long-term value one has to feel some things are opening up.
Here are a couple of things I’m looking at:
The Nikkei at 9400
News out of Japan consistency looks bad, but the amount of money which is going to be sloshed around in the next few years rebuilding is likely to provide a serious catalyst for growth. I reckon you can get a pretty nice band between say 9400 and 9800 in which to trade in the next few weeks.
Brait at R18.50
Said it in the previous post and I maintain it – Brait at under R19 is incredibly tempting if you are a patient investor and looking for some long-term dividend growth.
African Bank Investments Limited at under R36
The sell-off has created an opportunity in local banking group Abil. You still get a dividend of around 4% and decent earnings growth forward.
Altech at R55
If you are looking for an Africa play then Altech is hard to ignore at the moment. The group is an early mover on the technology front onto the continent and with the share having slipped from R68 to R55 its tempting. A historic price to earnings multiple of 11 times earnings and a dividend yield of a tad under 6%.
Dividends, dividends, dividends.....
Happy hunting….
Certainly not the prettiest market around at the moment but at least if you’re looking for some long-term value one has to feel some things are opening up.
Here are a couple of things I’m looking at:
The Nikkei at 9400
News out of Japan consistency looks bad, but the amount of money which is going to be sloshed around in the next few years rebuilding is likely to provide a serious catalyst for growth. I reckon you can get a pretty nice band between say 9400 and 9800 in which to trade in the next few weeks.
Brait at R18.50
Said it in the previous post and I maintain it – Brait at under R19 is incredibly tempting if you are a patient investor and looking for some long-term dividend growth.
African Bank Investments Limited at under R36
The sell-off has created an opportunity in local banking group Abil. You still get a dividend of around 4% and decent earnings growth forward.
Altech at R55
If you are looking for an Africa play then Altech is hard to ignore at the moment. The group is an early mover on the technology front onto the continent and with the share having slipped from R68 to R55 its tempting. A historic price to earnings multiple of 11 times earnings and a dividend yield of a tad under 6%.
Dividends, dividends, dividends.....
Happy hunting….
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Liking platinum
I have been watching these gold and platinum prices with some interest and this recent sell-off has caught my eye this evening.
Personally I thought gold would hold around the $1320 mark but it went straight through that and maybe $1310 will act as some kind of support level. I think the thing which has surprised me on this front is the reason S&P rating cut in Japan, I thought there might be some money cycled out of there and into precious metal commodities... apparently not yet.
Whatever, I find gold over-rated and really only for the looneys.
The metal which does interest me though is platinum and I've taken a small long position on it at $1790 on the April future. There is nothing complicated about my thinking here... look around SA at the moment, everything is being held together on a shoe-string - roads, traffic lights, rail etc etc. Throw in that the rain has soaked the coal for the power stations and there is now a massive transport strike scheduled for early in February.
If the signs of economic improvement are to be believed and the emphasis on clean energy keeps being punted and that platinum is expected to come out of South Africa then surely you can't go too far wrong backing the metal from here?
On the equity front only two real plays are jumping out at me:
Brait
Rushed up to R26.50 before a cautionary announcement was put out and then the stock slumped to R22 but has subsequently bounced. Good play at these levels considering the dividend
RE:CM & Calibre prefs (RACP)
You can buy RACP at less than the NAV of a cash shell... To me that is simply brain-dead if you believe that Piet Viljoen and his team can generate even the most basic long-term investment return.
With the fun and games in Japan earlier today with the S&P re-rating I reckon Friday could be an interesting day for traders. Let's see who keeps their heads.
Personally I thought gold would hold around the $1320 mark but it went straight through that and maybe $1310 will act as some kind of support level. I think the thing which has surprised me on this front is the reason S&P rating cut in Japan, I thought there might be some money cycled out of there and into precious metal commodities... apparently not yet.
Whatever, I find gold over-rated and really only for the looneys.
The metal which does interest me though is platinum and I've taken a small long position on it at $1790 on the April future. There is nothing complicated about my thinking here... look around SA at the moment, everything is being held together on a shoe-string - roads, traffic lights, rail etc etc. Throw in that the rain has soaked the coal for the power stations and there is now a massive transport strike scheduled for early in February.
If the signs of economic improvement are to be believed and the emphasis on clean energy keeps being punted and that platinum is expected to come out of South Africa then surely you can't go too far wrong backing the metal from here?
On the equity front only two real plays are jumping out at me:
Brait
Rushed up to R26.50 before a cautionary announcement was put out and then the stock slumped to R22 but has subsequently bounced. Good play at these levels considering the dividend
RE:CM & Calibre prefs (RACP)
You can buy RACP at less than the NAV of a cash shell... To me that is simply brain-dead if you believe that Piet Viljoen and his team can generate even the most basic long-term investment return.
With the fun and games in Japan earlier today with the S&P re-rating I reckon Friday could be an interesting day for traders. Let's see who keeps their heads.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Warren Buffett and the Art of Stock Arbitrage: Proven Strategies for Arbitrage and Other Special Investment Situations
I am always trying to look for new investment books for traders and investors to look at to try and find a trading strategy which works.
Came across this ebook from Warren Bufffett - Warren Buffett and the Art of Stock Arbitrage: Proven Strategies for Arbitrage and Other Special Investment Situations - and thought it might be a nice read.
The book is 176 pages so it is not too bad length wise and should appeal to both newbies and more experienced investors.
You can order it online for R163.46 by clicking HERE or on the book cover.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
