Geopolitics

I always find it difficult to take geopolitics all that serious - especially when it is looking ahead over the next decade, but I see that STRATFOR have made their forecasts to 2010 with some very interesting views.

I don't agree with all of them, but I think its good to throw out the ideas into the investor domain for debate.

Their predictions:

• Egypt and Turkey will become regional superpowers
• US-jihadist war will have subsided with Iran pacified by either military action, isolation or political agreement
• Worldwide labour shortages and huge demand for immigrant labour
• China will have suffered an economic meltdown leaving the US as the lone world superpower

I have mixed thoughts on these Egypt yes, Turkey no. Egypt I've always thought was an under-rated part of the mix on the continent and its proximity to Europe and the Middle East have to be considered. Turkey I still get the sense is too fractious internally to fill the gap.

I'm indifferent to Iran as a flashpoint. I was surprised to learn their economy is as big as it is - GDP of around $850m. That's big if one considers the problems it has. America doesnt have the enthusiasm it once had to pick fights and I wouldn't be surprised if Iran actually thrives on sheer pigheadedness.

Labour shortages I don't agree on. I actually think that while the world is going through a phase of upgrading its labour force and emphasising quality of work /loving its labour force. There might be a little less mechanisation than people think and while there might actually be wage deflation, but maybe more flexibility in the working day.

China - disagree completely and I also think that Japan will bounce back. Don't worry I'm not one of those people who believes that China is a bulletproof story - but let's be honest in 10 years China will just be starting to develop a property market, retail banking system and empowering its consumers - its not all going to fall on its head in the next 10 years.

Anyway food for thought always aims to stimulate some debate - your thoughts?