Friday mumbles

After making a small profit on my short on the Top40 I closed out my position and the only open trade I now have open is a long on Sasol. At least the Rand is providing a bit of a handbrake at the moment and the oil price at $68.60 is "robust"

There is no question that the rising unemployment issues in places like the US remains a threat - you cannot have a jobless recovery - finished and klaar. Personally I think a lot of stocks will still come off over the next few months - particularly those with exposure to the consumer end of the market.

A couple of people commented that being long Sasol while shorting the TOp40 was surely counter-productive and in general that makes sense. But Sasol is cheap in comparison to its international peers.

At the moment Sasol is trading on a price to earnings (PE) multiple of say 10.5 (allowing for some currency).

In comparison the historical PE's of:

• Exxon Mobil - 17 times
• Chevron - 15 times
• Royal Dutch Shell - 13 times
• BP - 13.9
• ConocoPhillips - 13
• Total - 9

For sure Sasol is not Exxon or Chevron but when one considers the multiplier effect that a weaker rand could have on earnings and the great technology the company possesses, it would make sense to see Sasol pushing on from here.

But that's just my view so who knows.

It is not a very scientific method of analysing investor sentiment but I thought what was quite interesting was to take a look at the top headlines on CNN....

# Chicago, Rio lead race to host Olympics
# Key piece of human evolution revealed
# 1,100 dead in Indonesia quakes, U.N. says
# Ex-prosecutor says he lied about Polanski case
# Martin: Hollywood is clueless on Polanski
# CNNMoney: Dow plunges on economic reports
# Fortune: BofA CEO scores $53M retirement
# KSL: Elizabeth Smart says she was raped daily
# Vote now for 2009 CNN Hero of the Year
# Time: What Berlusconi's Obama jokes say
# Ticker: Republican sounds off on Polanski
# Boy, 11, wages fight against the N-word Video
# Stranger carries boy from burning building Video
# H1N1 vaccine on schedule, official says
# What if you ditched your car for a day?
# Kanye West's 'Fame Kills' tour meets swift end
# Sister upset about Mackenzie Phillips' book Video
# Poo power saves farmer $200,000 Video T-shirt
# CNN Wire: Jon Gosselin’s epiphany...

...... Yip sounds like people are REALLY worried about panic in the global economy this Friday.