Monday, December 8, 2008

Maybe I'm just a spoilsport, but watching the Dow rise above 9000 points STILL doesn't get my all that excited...

Ok I'll be the first to admit that it was a bit more pleasant to actually some green in my portfolio today, but like I said - I'm not all that certain that the rebound has the legs that traders think it does...

Tribune Co., publisher of the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times, sought bankruptcy court protection from creditors and the New York Times may have to mortgage its Manhattan headquarters as a major debt repayment looms.

In between that a couple of smaller hedge funds went belly up and of course we have the impact of job losses both in SA and abroad...

I suppose one "bright" spark is that the Big 3 auto firms look like they're getting their chunk of the bailout money although what good it will do is beyond me...

PLEASE can somebody explain to me how this is why share prices could be justified at being at the bottom?!

Couple of topics I wanted to touch on this evening.

1. Zim endgame
What happens in Zim has enormous social ramifications for us - no matter how our leadership tries to dress it up. My personal opinion - Zim is hitting rock bottom now. Cholera is likely to spread rapidly and it is unfortunately going to be a major social problem, but unfortunately its the only way that Mad Bob is going to be replaced.

In amongst the chaos, there might just be some opportunities to start positioning assets?

2. Empowerment plays
A while back I blogged about the empowerment plays in South Africa. Many of the weakly capitalised empowerment groups are starting to take some serious pain around their investments.

However the two empowerment heavyweights who may just flourish in an environment like this are Brimstone (BRT) and the Mvelaphanda Group (MVG) which I currently have in my portfolio.

For the first time in a while these well capitalised businesses can get in when assets values are weaker and take some meaningful stakes of distressed businesses. This is part of the reason that I have them in my portfolio at the moment.

I think they are made for a situation like this.

Conclusion:
As I said - I don't particularly buy this rally and still think that there is some sideways and downward movement to come.

There is still a lot of change left in the global corporate landscape and it is going to be intriguing to watch.

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