Monday, October 20, 2008

Hhhhmmm....

Hark! Hark! The trouble has gone and the world stock markets can get back to printing money for investors - oh joy oh happy tidings...

Whatever....

Global stock markets have kicked off Monday in slightly more positive territory and traders and investors are tentatively putting a few bucks back into the market.

Just remember before you decide to dive back into the market with highly geared positions that last week the market bounced nicely one day and then broke all records again on the downside.

While the rebound is encouraging that we may have hit a short term bottom, remember that the damage has been done and things are not turning around economically for a while...

It is all good and well pointing out that there is a bucket load of liquidity now in the financial system, but lets remember the jobs that have been shed recently.

Wherever I look, I am reading stories about huge numbers of jobs being shed. If it is not the financial or motor manufacturers in America, its the mines right here on our own doorstep.

I was pretty bullish on Impala Platinum a few weeks back but the platinum price has been slaughtered and suddenly the mines are cutting back on jobs and their capital expenditure projects.

I keep saying it but WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN THESE UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE COME INTO THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY?!

I chatted to one of the CEO's of SA's big 4 banks and he said (a little more bluntly) - there is groot kak (big trouble) coming.

According to him - anyone who says that we're at the bottom of the house price and credit cycle better think again.

I hate being negative but its something to bear in mind that the crisis seems to have moved from being a financial crisis into the realm of an economic crisis and THAT will not be fun for anyone involved...

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