Thursday, October 23, 2008

Carnage continued

But I don't understand - the fund managers promised us we were "near the bottom" and South Africa was insulated from the rest of the world.

They told us Gordon Brown was a HERO who had saved us from financial armageddon. Everytime he came on to TV I heard Tina Turner blaring out the Mad Max soundtrack.

I don't understand what went wrong....

Ok that was me taking the piss because its Friday.

Some pretty spectacular stuff yesterday. Gold index lost another 5.6% and we now have the platinum price within 100 dollars of the gold price and both are continuing to head south... So much for the "safe haven" theory for now.

Currencies are all over the show and problems in Argentina, Russia and other emerging markets is proving to be a bigger problem than most people expected.

The All Share index dropped below 20 000 points for the first time in a long while and if you're trying to pick a bottom to this then you're a braver man or woman than I am.... Ever tried to catch a falling piano??

Here's a hint - D O N T

That DBXJP X-Tracker has held up nicely actually moving ahead of where I bought it. That I suspect is largely a function of currency moves but I'll take the security its provided.

For the rest things look a little messy and the deluge of selling pressure doesn't seem to want to let up.

I'm pretty sure there are pockets of value out there. Things that look good to me include Standard Bank, Absa, Tiger Brands, Pioneer and PikWik. They're all pretty defensive, even if the banks do take some pain the next few weeks.

I also quite like the Mvelephanda Group (MVG) story. They're a nice diversified group and yet the share price has also been under a lot of pressure now. I bought MVG at around R5.60 and its now sitting at R4.90 (after paying out a dividend and special divvie). I think there is value in this story.

But if you are buying short term and you expecting the market to stage a big turnaround then like I said - go and stand underneath Ponte and have a mate drop a piano toward you - if you can catch it then we MIGHT have hit the bottom...

1 comment:

Strategist said...

PS Its FRIDAY SELLING time - not a great day to think about going long...