It has been a while since I put something down on this blog. It has been a tough couple of months for traders and investors alike. Market doesn't want to go higher due to the Euro debt crisis despite there clearly being some compelling valuations.
Here are the trades I am still playing with plus one new trade:
Old Mutual at under R14 (ADDED)
I'm not a huge fan of insurers but Old Mutual has a lot going for it. Its being tarred with the Euro crisis but remember that a lot of its profits come from South African operations and a lot of its valuation is linked to its stake in Nedbank. It is battling to kick on at the moment but Goldman Sachs recently upgraded the share to a buy.
Nikkei
As mentioned in the previous post, there has been a pretty predictable 9400 - 9800 band starting to form. Everybody is talking Japan at the moment and how cheap it is. You don't even have to believe in a super rebound in the markets to score. Scale 250 - 350 points each time and you can build a decent return here.
Brait at R17.50
Sure there is a lot of speculation around Brait at the moment, but it has two very solid assets underneath it in the form of Pep and Premier Foods. As it stands you are basically getting these businesses plus some cash and paying next to nothing for the other assets. Sure in some cases you probably shouldn't be paying much for them and without the dividend Brait is a less compelling investment story but if they can stick to generate long-term ROE of 20% odd you are going to find few investments that can match this.
African Bank Investments Limited
I maintain what I said in the earlier post - you get a dividend of 5%, you have a solid and cash generative business on an undemanding price to earnings multiple which doesn't have to support capital intensive investment banking businesses. Simple, stupid kind of investment?
Vividend Income Fund
Another of those investments which slot into the simple, stupid investment category is Vividend. There is nothing complicated about this new property listing. It is ungeared, nice portfolio and with a well respected management. You are picking up about 6% yield after tax and the price is off its highs. Definately worth a nibble.
Nothing else really jumping out at me.
I quite like the new Africa ETN from Standard Bank and have added a debit order for it from next month. Will see how that product evolves.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Sunday, May 1, 2011
And all I got was this lousy birth certificate....
The world has woken to the news that public enemy number 1 (well at least the US enemy number 1) - Osama Bin Laden - has been killed in a mansion in Pakistan in a joint special forces attack. It has been almost 10 years since that fateful day since September 11th and you can understand the relief in the US that this fight has been "won".
The cynic in me suggests that this news probably puts paid to Donald Trumps presidential ambitions.... All he could produce was a birth certificate of sorts for Barack Obama....
... no wonder Obama thought he probably was justified in taking a dig at the property billionaire in the press conference yesterday.
So what does this mean for markets and trading?
- I gotta fess up. Friday's spike in Gold burnt me and I was stopped out there.
- Still in with my short oil from $125 and long US$ / short Japanese Yen trade
In my head I had suspected a bit more of a "patriot rally" in terms of the US dollar but lets wait it out. The yen is weakening and as the rest of global markets digest the news, there might be a bit more enthusiasm for the trade.
Oil at $125 is in my humble opinion overbought and being driven by this commodity bubble and being held up unnaturally high with social tensions in places like Libya, Syria, Egypt etc. But there is nothing new in these areas to suggest that this kind of price is justified, especially with economic data suggesting the economy is staggering.
I do agree with the early analysis from STRATFOR that this probably means that the US can hasten its departure from Afghanistan. While the US has made a lot of noise about its humanitarian support / obligations to the region, the fight has been going on for 9 and a half years and Americans are tired of this battle. Since the initial "shock and awe" they've been left fighting for a country which is politically and economically worthless.
With the US elections around the corner, it will do a lot for popularity ratings to show US soldiers packing their bags and heading home to their loved ones. US soldiers departing the Middle East will invariably be good publicity in the near-term.
So for now I'll stay short oil and long the dollar... counter-intuitive maybe but its probably about time the world started to settle down for a bit and put this chapter behind us.
The cynic in me suggests that this news probably puts paid to Donald Trumps presidential ambitions.... All he could produce was a birth certificate of sorts for Barack Obama....
... no wonder Obama thought he probably was justified in taking a dig at the property billionaire in the press conference yesterday.
So what does this mean for markets and trading?
- I gotta fess up. Friday's spike in Gold burnt me and I was stopped out there.
- Still in with my short oil from $125 and long US$ / short Japanese Yen trade
In my head I had suspected a bit more of a "patriot rally" in terms of the US dollar but lets wait it out. The yen is weakening and as the rest of global markets digest the news, there might be a bit more enthusiasm for the trade.
Oil at $125 is in my humble opinion overbought and being driven by this commodity bubble and being held up unnaturally high with social tensions in places like Libya, Syria, Egypt etc. But there is nothing new in these areas to suggest that this kind of price is justified, especially with economic data suggesting the economy is staggering.
I do agree with the early analysis from STRATFOR that this probably means that the US can hasten its departure from Afghanistan. While the US has made a lot of noise about its humanitarian support / obligations to the region, the fight has been going on for 9 and a half years and Americans are tired of this battle. Since the initial "shock and awe" they've been left fighting for a country which is politically and economically worthless.
With the US elections around the corner, it will do a lot for popularity ratings to show US soldiers packing their bags and heading home to their loved ones. US soldiers departing the Middle East will invariably be good publicity in the near-term.
So for now I'll stay short oil and long the dollar... counter-intuitive maybe but its probably about time the world started to settle down for a bit and put this chapter behind us.
Monday, April 18, 2011
April update
So those dumb-asses at S&P decided to downgrade the US of A this afternoon and caused some proper kak in the markets today. Stocks are down, dollar is down, metals are up… I’m so excited to see a bit of volatility.
Certainly not the prettiest market around at the moment but at least if you’re looking for some long-term value one has to feel some things are opening up.
Here are a couple of things I’m looking at:
The Nikkei at 9400
News out of Japan consistency looks bad, but the amount of money which is going to be sloshed around in the next few years rebuilding is likely to provide a serious catalyst for growth. I reckon you can get a pretty nice band between say 9400 and 9800 in which to trade in the next few weeks.
Brait at R18.50
Said it in the previous post and I maintain it – Brait at under R19 is incredibly tempting if you are a patient investor and looking for some long-term dividend growth.
African Bank Investments Limited at under R36
The sell-off has created an opportunity in local banking group Abil. You still get a dividend of around 4% and decent earnings growth forward.
Altech at R55
If you are looking for an Africa play then Altech is hard to ignore at the moment. The group is an early mover on the technology front onto the continent and with the share having slipped from R68 to R55 its tempting. A historic price to earnings multiple of 11 times earnings and a dividend yield of a tad under 6%.
Dividends, dividends, dividends.....
Happy hunting….
Certainly not the prettiest market around at the moment but at least if you’re looking for some long-term value one has to feel some things are opening up.
Here are a couple of things I’m looking at:
The Nikkei at 9400
News out of Japan consistency looks bad, but the amount of money which is going to be sloshed around in the next few years rebuilding is likely to provide a serious catalyst for growth. I reckon you can get a pretty nice band between say 9400 and 9800 in which to trade in the next few weeks.
Brait at R18.50
Said it in the previous post and I maintain it – Brait at under R19 is incredibly tempting if you are a patient investor and looking for some long-term dividend growth.
African Bank Investments Limited at under R36
The sell-off has created an opportunity in local banking group Abil. You still get a dividend of around 4% and decent earnings growth forward.
Altech at R55
If you are looking for an Africa play then Altech is hard to ignore at the moment. The group is an early mover on the technology front onto the continent and with the share having slipped from R68 to R55 its tempting. A historic price to earnings multiple of 11 times earnings and a dividend yield of a tad under 6%.
Dividends, dividends, dividends.....
Happy hunting….
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Liking platinum
I have been watching these gold and platinum prices with some interest and this recent sell-off has caught my eye this evening.
Personally I thought gold would hold around the $1320 mark but it went straight through that and maybe $1310 will act as some kind of support level. I think the thing which has surprised me on this front is the reason S&P rating cut in Japan, I thought there might be some money cycled out of there and into precious metal commodities... apparently not yet.
Whatever, I find gold over-rated and really only for the looneys.
The metal which does interest me though is platinum and I've taken a small long position on it at $1790 on the April future. There is nothing complicated about my thinking here... look around SA at the moment, everything is being held together on a shoe-string - roads, traffic lights, rail etc etc. Throw in that the rain has soaked the coal for the power stations and there is now a massive transport strike scheduled for early in February.
If the signs of economic improvement are to be believed and the emphasis on clean energy keeps being punted and that platinum is expected to come out of South Africa then surely you can't go too far wrong backing the metal from here?
On the equity front only two real plays are jumping out at me:
Brait
Rushed up to R26.50 before a cautionary announcement was put out and then the stock slumped to R22 but has subsequently bounced. Good play at these levels considering the dividend
RE:CM & Calibre prefs (RACP)
You can buy RACP at less than the NAV of a cash shell... To me that is simply brain-dead if you believe that Piet Viljoen and his team can generate even the most basic long-term investment return.
With the fun and games in Japan earlier today with the S&P re-rating I reckon Friday could be an interesting day for traders. Let's see who keeps their heads.
Personally I thought gold would hold around the $1320 mark but it went straight through that and maybe $1310 will act as some kind of support level. I think the thing which has surprised me on this front is the reason S&P rating cut in Japan, I thought there might be some money cycled out of there and into precious metal commodities... apparently not yet.
Whatever, I find gold over-rated and really only for the looneys.
The metal which does interest me though is platinum and I've taken a small long position on it at $1790 on the April future. There is nothing complicated about my thinking here... look around SA at the moment, everything is being held together on a shoe-string - roads, traffic lights, rail etc etc. Throw in that the rain has soaked the coal for the power stations and there is now a massive transport strike scheduled for early in February.
If the signs of economic improvement are to be believed and the emphasis on clean energy keeps being punted and that platinum is expected to come out of South Africa then surely you can't go too far wrong backing the metal from here?
On the equity front only two real plays are jumping out at me:
Brait
Rushed up to R26.50 before a cautionary announcement was put out and then the stock slumped to R22 but has subsequently bounced. Good play at these levels considering the dividend
RE:CM & Calibre prefs (RACP)
You can buy RACP at less than the NAV of a cash shell... To me that is simply brain-dead if you believe that Piet Viljoen and his team can generate even the most basic long-term investment return.
With the fun and games in Japan earlier today with the S&P re-rating I reckon Friday could be an interesting day for traders. Let's see who keeps their heads.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Warren Buffett and the Art of Stock Arbitrage: Proven Strategies for Arbitrage and Other Special Investment Situations
I am always trying to look for new investment books for traders and investors to look at to try and find a trading strategy which works.
Came across this ebook from Warren Bufffett - Warren Buffett and the Art of Stock Arbitrage: Proven Strategies for Arbitrage and Other Special Investment Situations - and thought it might be a nice read.
The book is 176 pages so it is not too bad length wise and should appeal to both newbies and more experienced investors.
You can order it online for R163.46 by clicking HERE or on the book cover.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Sasol, the Nasdaq and the Dollar
So we are slowly sliding out of an interesting 2010 and treading with some trepidation into 2011. Markets are interesting at the moment... I wouldn't say tough because I'm still happy being long for the simple reason that there is a sea of liquidity out there desperately seeking places to be parked. I think it is pretty obvious that people are not going to make (or even protect) money by leaving it in the bank.
I have three active trades on the go at the moment:
Sasol
I like this share. Good dividend payer, growth prospects, trades at a discount to its peers and hell its been largely unloved in 2010 despite oil now heading for $100 a barrel. The company started the year at R290 a share and up until September it didn't go anywhere but in the last couple of weeks its been slowly
gaining some momentum and looks like it wants to push aboe R340 a share.
Call me a cynic but the company is widely held by domestic asset managers and I wouldn't be surprised if this stock starts getting some serious media attention in the early half of 2011 as they try and ramp up their portfolios. Sasol also recently announced a $1bn investment in a Canadian project and a lot of its other Gas to Liquids (GTL) plants are coming on line and pushing up production volumes.
All signs are there that Sasol is kicking up a gear so I am comfortable being long Sasol at R335.
The Nasdaq
Technology stocks have been out of favour in the US for a while now but there is lot going for them. The last couple of quarters have been good for telecomms and tech stocks with many indicating share buybacks and dividends were on the cards. I stand under correction but I think Intel has lifted its dividend in each of the last five years.
US companies have sat with alot of cash on their balance sheets over the last two years and at some point they are going to look to deploy that capital. That means investing in new technology, PCs, semi-conductors etc. A Nasdaq at 2600 doesn't seem to be too risky in my books.
The Dollar
Considering how I got smacked around by US currency over the last six months I probably need my head read but here's my logic:
- The US is coming out of recession
- AIG, Bank of America and Citigroup are repaying their debts
- The emerging market story is interesting but it has meant that many of the US companies are offering some seriously good value. I wouldn't be surprised if demand for US assets starts to rise as institutional investors start realising that they get better value for their money in the US rather than directly ploughing money into emerging markets?
I thought about it a bit and decided to go long dollar, short yen. There is some uncertainty in Asia with the Korean spat so I wonder if the basket of Asian currencies might come under some selling pressure?
Let's see how those play out over the next few weeks.... Happy Xmas and New Year folks
I have three active trades on the go at the moment:
Sasol
I like this share. Good dividend payer, growth prospects, trades at a discount to its peers and hell its been largely unloved in 2010 despite oil now heading for $100 a barrel. The company started the year at R290 a share and up until September it didn't go anywhere but in the last couple of weeks its been slowly
gaining some momentum and looks like it wants to push aboe R340 a share.
Call me a cynic but the company is widely held by domestic asset managers and I wouldn't be surprised if this stock starts getting some serious media attention in the early half of 2011 as they try and ramp up their portfolios. Sasol also recently announced a $1bn investment in a Canadian project and a lot of its other Gas to Liquids (GTL) plants are coming on line and pushing up production volumes.
All signs are there that Sasol is kicking up a gear so I am comfortable being long Sasol at R335.
The Nasdaq
Technology stocks have been out of favour in the US for a while now but there is lot going for them. The last couple of quarters have been good for telecomms and tech stocks with many indicating share buybacks and dividends were on the cards. I stand under correction but I think Intel has lifted its dividend in each of the last five years.
US companies have sat with alot of cash on their balance sheets over the last two years and at some point they are going to look to deploy that capital. That means investing in new technology, PCs, semi-conductors etc. A Nasdaq at 2600 doesn't seem to be too risky in my books.
The Dollar
Considering how I got smacked around by US currency over the last six months I probably need my head read but here's my logic:
- The US is coming out of recession
- AIG, Bank of America and Citigroup are repaying their debts
- The emerging market story is interesting but it has meant that many of the US companies are offering some seriously good value. I wouldn't be surprised if demand for US assets starts to rise as institutional investors start realising that they get better value for their money in the US rather than directly ploughing money into emerging markets?
I thought about it a bit and decided to go long dollar, short yen. There is some uncertainty in Asia with the Korean spat so I wonder if the basket of Asian currencies might come under some selling pressure?
Let's see how those play out over the next few weeks.... Happy Xmas and New Year folks
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
The Wire: New offering from Global Trader
I was just forwarded the following announcement from Global Trader and I thought it was quite an interesting idea for day traders / investors. Anybody tried it out? Thoughts?
You can check out the offering here.
The Wire. A Christmas gift worth waiting for
By Charles Savage, CEO of Global Trader
I don’t remember exactly when I first white boarded my vision for Global Traders’ online community offering but it was sometime in 2007. I clearly remember the enthusiasm and excitement with which the IT and marketing teams met my idea, excitement more about the fact that the CEO had finally lost his mind and had nothing to do with my idea at all.
Two Chief Technology Officers later and the work of people best described as wizards, magicians and conjurers and we launched version one of The Wire. The Wire is the name for the new online world we have created and is the centre of our financial community and the platform from which all our community driven services come to life.
It is a closed community in the sense that it is available to our live trading clients only but, beyond this, the restrictions fall away swiftly. The Wire is free to air and it is a radical new approach to delivering meaningful, actionable financial information that enables collaboration and communication and breaks down the barriers between those that trade and those that should trade.
At Global Trader we make it our business to smash down these barriers because we believe that for too long financial markets have unjustifiably been shrouded in mystery and intrigue. It is seen as the realm of engineers, actuaries and rocket scientists that, for the most part, have discouraged you from doing it yourself. To quote Peter Lynch, one of the most successful Wall Street investors of all time, “everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it.” The truth is that Global Trader has now made trading simple.
On The Wire you can call yourself whatever you like, talk to traders, publish your research and views, read blogs about investing, technology trends affecting trading and read about how we view the world of investing. You can live vicariously through your trading alias and learn from fellow traders. When it comes to the what, when and how successfully you trade The Wire is an open book.
Do you remember your first casino experience? I do and I’m pretty sure it went something like this. You wondered around the casino halls in awe of the sounds, light and music, stopping occasionally to peer over the shoulder of the confident punters taking up the seats at the machines and tables. You paused and looked on in wonder at the piles of chips in front of some of the players and, after plucking up enough courage, reached forward and placed your chips behind one of them. You won some and you lost some but you learnt from every hand and grew in confidence until finally a seat became free and you pounced on it.
With The Wire’s Twades you can stand behind real live traders, follow their trades, track their success and if you like even put your money behind their portfolio punts until you feel comfortable enough to join them at the table. If you’ve played enough Blackjack, as I have, you will know that it is always good to cover a couple of boxes. Twades is our “first flight” service to launch on The Wire with more first flight services lined up for 2011.
Then there’s She–Ra, my personal favourite financial blogger, who publishes her work on The Wire’s Skirt Length Theory blog. If there is still some youth about you then you are going to love her approach to financial markets. She says of the myth surrounding trading, “Do you see images of a high risk, fast paced environment populated by coked up investment w*nkers or images of old fogies that have made their millions sitting in silk slippers barking orders at their brokers whilst smoking a pipe? If so then you would be only the tiniest bit right and you would also be SO wrong!”
I have no doubt that the launch of the Wire will be reflected on in Global Traders’ history as the defining moment that best demonstrated our commitment to the vision to boldly go where no South African financial service provider has even dared to dream about. Welcome to the New World!
Insider trading just got trumped by Twades! The question is, were you following?
You can check out the offering here.
The Wire. A Christmas gift worth waiting for
By Charles Savage, CEO of Global Trader
I don’t remember exactly when I first white boarded my vision for Global Traders’ online community offering but it was sometime in 2007. I clearly remember the enthusiasm and excitement with which the IT and marketing teams met my idea, excitement more about the fact that the CEO had finally lost his mind and had nothing to do with my idea at all.
Two Chief Technology Officers later and the work of people best described as wizards, magicians and conjurers and we launched version one of The Wire. The Wire is the name for the new online world we have created and is the centre of our financial community and the platform from which all our community driven services come to life.
It is a closed community in the sense that it is available to our live trading clients only but, beyond this, the restrictions fall away swiftly. The Wire is free to air and it is a radical new approach to delivering meaningful, actionable financial information that enables collaboration and communication and breaks down the barriers between those that trade and those that should trade.
At Global Trader we make it our business to smash down these barriers because we believe that for too long financial markets have unjustifiably been shrouded in mystery and intrigue. It is seen as the realm of engineers, actuaries and rocket scientists that, for the most part, have discouraged you from doing it yourself. To quote Peter Lynch, one of the most successful Wall Street investors of all time, “everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it.” The truth is that Global Trader has now made trading simple.
On The Wire you can call yourself whatever you like, talk to traders, publish your research and views, read blogs about investing, technology trends affecting trading and read about how we view the world of investing. You can live vicariously through your trading alias and learn from fellow traders. When it comes to the what, when and how successfully you trade The Wire is an open book.
Do you remember your first casino experience? I do and I’m pretty sure it went something like this. You wondered around the casino halls in awe of the sounds, light and music, stopping occasionally to peer over the shoulder of the confident punters taking up the seats at the machines and tables. You paused and looked on in wonder at the piles of chips in front of some of the players and, after plucking up enough courage, reached forward and placed your chips behind one of them. You won some and you lost some but you learnt from every hand and grew in confidence until finally a seat became free and you pounced on it.
With The Wire’s Twades you can stand behind real live traders, follow their trades, track their success and if you like even put your money behind their portfolio punts until you feel comfortable enough to join them at the table. If you’ve played enough Blackjack, as I have, you will know that it is always good to cover a couple of boxes. Twades is our “first flight” service to launch on The Wire with more first flight services lined up for 2011.
Then there’s She–Ra, my personal favourite financial blogger, who publishes her work on The Wire’s Skirt Length Theory blog. If there is still some youth about you then you are going to love her approach to financial markets. She says of the myth surrounding trading, “Do you see images of a high risk, fast paced environment populated by coked up investment w*nkers or images of old fogies that have made their millions sitting in silk slippers barking orders at their brokers whilst smoking a pipe? If so then you would be only the tiniest bit right and you would also be SO wrong!”
I have no doubt that the launch of the Wire will be reflected on in Global Traders’ history as the defining moment that best demonstrated our commitment to the vision to boldly go where no South African financial service provider has even dared to dream about. Welcome to the New World!
Insider trading just got trumped by Twades! The question is, were you following?
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