It has been a while since I put something down on this blog. It has been a tough couple of months for traders and investors alike. Market doesn't want to go higher due to the Euro debt crisis despite there clearly being some compelling valuations.
Here are the trades I am still playing with plus one new trade:
Old Mutual at under R14 (ADDED)
I'm not a huge fan of insurers but Old Mutual has a lot going for it. Its being tarred with the Euro crisis but remember that a lot of its profits come from South African operations and a lot of its valuation is linked to its stake in Nedbank. It is battling to kick on at the moment but Goldman Sachs recently upgraded the share to a buy.
Nikkei
As mentioned in the previous post, there has been a pretty predictable 9400 - 9800 band starting to form. Everybody is talking Japan at the moment and how cheap it is. You don't even have to believe in a super rebound in the markets to score. Scale 250 - 350 points each time and you can build a decent return here.
Brait at R17.50
Sure there is a lot of speculation around Brait at the moment, but it has two very solid assets underneath it in the form of Pep and Premier Foods. As it stands you are basically getting these businesses plus some cash and paying next to nothing for the other assets. Sure in some cases you probably shouldn't be paying much for them and without the dividend Brait is a less compelling investment story but if they can stick to generate long-term ROE of 20% odd you are going to find few investments that can match this.
African Bank Investments Limited
I maintain what I said in the earlier post - you get a dividend of 5%, you have a solid and cash generative business on an undemanding price to earnings multiple which doesn't have to support capital intensive investment banking businesses. Simple, stupid kind of investment?
Vividend Income Fund
Another of those investments which slot into the simple, stupid investment category is Vividend. There is nothing complicated about this new property listing. It is ungeared, nice portfolio and with a well respected management. You are picking up about 6% yield after tax and the price is off its highs. Definately worth a nibble.
Nothing else really jumping out at me.
I quite like the new Africa ETN from Standard Bank and have added a debit order for it from next month. Will see how that product evolves.
Showing posts with label Nikkei. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nikkei. Show all posts
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Monday, April 18, 2011
April update
So those dumb-asses at S&P decided to downgrade the US of A this afternoon and caused some proper kak in the markets today. Stocks are down, dollar is down, metals are up… I’m so excited to see a bit of volatility.
Certainly not the prettiest market around at the moment but at least if you’re looking for some long-term value one has to feel some things are opening up.
Here are a couple of things I’m looking at:
The Nikkei at 9400
News out of Japan consistency looks bad, but the amount of money which is going to be sloshed around in the next few years rebuilding is likely to provide a serious catalyst for growth. I reckon you can get a pretty nice band between say 9400 and 9800 in which to trade in the next few weeks.
Brait at R18.50
Said it in the previous post and I maintain it – Brait at under R19 is incredibly tempting if you are a patient investor and looking for some long-term dividend growth.
African Bank Investments Limited at under R36
The sell-off has created an opportunity in local banking group Abil. You still get a dividend of around 4% and decent earnings growth forward.
Altech at R55
If you are looking for an Africa play then Altech is hard to ignore at the moment. The group is an early mover on the technology front onto the continent and with the share having slipped from R68 to R55 its tempting. A historic price to earnings multiple of 11 times earnings and a dividend yield of a tad under 6%.
Dividends, dividends, dividends.....
Happy hunting….
Certainly not the prettiest market around at the moment but at least if you’re looking for some long-term value one has to feel some things are opening up.
Here are a couple of things I’m looking at:
The Nikkei at 9400
News out of Japan consistency looks bad, but the amount of money which is going to be sloshed around in the next few years rebuilding is likely to provide a serious catalyst for growth. I reckon you can get a pretty nice band between say 9400 and 9800 in which to trade in the next few weeks.
Brait at R18.50
Said it in the previous post and I maintain it – Brait at under R19 is incredibly tempting if you are a patient investor and looking for some long-term dividend growth.
African Bank Investments Limited at under R36
The sell-off has created an opportunity in local banking group Abil. You still get a dividend of around 4% and decent earnings growth forward.
Altech at R55
If you are looking for an Africa play then Altech is hard to ignore at the moment. The group is an early mover on the technology front onto the continent and with the share having slipped from R68 to R55 its tempting. A historic price to earnings multiple of 11 times earnings and a dividend yield of a tad under 6%.
Dividends, dividends, dividends.....
Happy hunting….
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Dow 10000 is here
Well the Dow Jones index has finally breached the 10000 point level once again and the psychological kicker that has come through is evident in Asian trading this morning. The Nikkei is up over 2% and people in general are feeling good about themselves.
Its just a damn pity that the US Dollar keeps seeing its ass and falling through the floor! It is acting as a serious handbrake to my long Sasol trade. Interestingly the SOLSBG warrant has continued to track up even if the Sasol share price has been moving sideways.
I had been gradually building up a long in platinum and have added to that position yesterday as the price has firmed above $1355. I suspect positive sentiment will be with the markets and industrial metals this week - trend is your friend and all of that.
On the small cap front
Did anybody see that new power board put in place at African Dawn?!
Christo Weise and Robert Emslie as non-execs. This surely has to be worth a punt if these guys are throwing their weight behind it.
Director dealings
It is interesting to see that directors are starting to sell into this market - is it the guys cashing for an early Christmas?!
Just yesterday:
Its just a damn pity that the US Dollar keeps seeing its ass and falling through the floor! It is acting as a serious handbrake to my long Sasol trade. Interestingly the SOLSBG warrant has continued to track up even if the Sasol share price has been moving sideways.
I had been gradually building up a long in platinum and have added to that position yesterday as the price has firmed above $1355. I suspect positive sentiment will be with the markets and industrial metals this week - trend is your friend and all of that.
On the small cap front
Did anybody see that new power board put in place at African Dawn?!
Christo Weise and Robert Emslie as non-execs. This surely has to be worth a punt if these guys are throwing their weight behind it.
Director dealings
It is interesting to see that directors are starting to sell into this market - is it the guys cashing for an early Christmas?!
Just yesterday:
- Topping over at Steinhoff sold R11m worth of shares
- Mokoena at Eqstra sold R240k
- Lazarus at Blue Label sold R309k
- Curle at Altech cashed in some of his options and sold R1.38m worth of shares
- Matlakala at Metropolitan sold out R2.5m
- Van Deventer at Shoprite settled options and cashed out R7.9m
Monday, June 22, 2009
But but but....
A sea of red greets traders today with Asia kicking us off. Had a couple of overnight shorts in place on both the Hang Seng and Nikkei which I've cashed out... Still reckon there is more downside to this leg but nobody ever went broke taking a profit.
The only thing I've got open now is a short on the Dow with a downward trend back in place as the rally fizzles out after the World Bank came out yesterday with some negative comments about future growth potential... which was in contrast to comments attributed to George Soros who said "The worst was behind us"
I am by no means a perma-bear and I think there are some nice value opportunities in the market at the moment - particularly in the South African market - but we need to appreciate how skittish investors are.
The bid by Xstrata for Anglo American gave the local market a bit of a boost but having chatted to a few people I get the sense that the bid is not going to get the support needed and if the "transaction premium" gets yanked out from Anglo then the JSE Top40 could take a smack.
Commodity futures are down as well. I thought there might be a bit more support for gold at 920 and oil at US$68 (particularly after its recent strength) but I guess next areas of interest for me are gold at around US$910 and oil at US$65.
(On that - I noticed an interesting story on Bloomberg about Japanese banks threatening to pull some funding from Venezuelan oil assets in response to non-payment and nationalisation threats... could this be a short term catalyst?)
Down still seems to be the only direction.
The only thing I've got open now is a short on the Dow with a downward trend back in place as the rally fizzles out after the World Bank came out yesterday with some negative comments about future growth potential... which was in contrast to comments attributed to George Soros who said "The worst was behind us"
I am by no means a perma-bear and I think there are some nice value opportunities in the market at the moment - particularly in the South African market - but we need to appreciate how skittish investors are.
The bid by Xstrata for Anglo American gave the local market a bit of a boost but having chatted to a few people I get the sense that the bid is not going to get the support needed and if the "transaction premium" gets yanked out from Anglo then the JSE Top40 could take a smack.
Commodity futures are down as well. I thought there might be a bit more support for gold at 920 and oil at US$68 (particularly after its recent strength) but I guess next areas of interest for me are gold at around US$910 and oil at US$65.
(On that - I noticed an interesting story on Bloomberg about Japanese banks threatening to pull some funding from Venezuelan oil assets in response to non-payment and nationalisation threats... could this be a short term catalyst?)
Down still seems to be the only direction.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Going long
Geez another rout on stock markets yesterday and the Dow Jones went below our 6800 target briefly closing at 6763 points down 299 points.
Big news of the day on the international front was that AIG reported a US$62bn loss for the quarter and on the local front the speculation is running riot (For the nth time!) that Old Mutual will offload their Nedbank stake.
What was interesting though was that despite the rout on US equity markets, the Alsi only moved down 0.43% and at this very moment in time the Nikkei has given up only 49 points and at one stage was threatening to go green. While the US takes the pain the rest of the world seems to be taking a back-seat ... a chance to look for a short term bounce?
I started going long in late trade on Monday, pretty much across the board.
You're probably thinking I'm a little loco going out on a limb here and going long but I think one has to stick to their convictions in some instances - I said 6800 was close enough to my short-term "low".
Also watching the Rand / Dollar exchange rate, I think this is where the kicker is going to come from over the next few days. The Rand slipped to R10.50 to the dollar and there doesn't seem to be too many reasons for it to go stronger either. I wouldn't be surprised if it fell to R11 to the dollar by the end of the week and that will provide a bit of upward momentum for our index - particularly if international markets take a bit of a breather...
Will see how it plays out
Big news of the day on the international front was that AIG reported a US$62bn loss for the quarter and on the local front the speculation is running riot (For the nth time!) that Old Mutual will offload their Nedbank stake.
What was interesting though was that despite the rout on US equity markets, the Alsi only moved down 0.43% and at this very moment in time the Nikkei has given up only 49 points and at one stage was threatening to go green. While the US takes the pain the rest of the world seems to be taking a back-seat ... a chance to look for a short term bounce?
I started going long in late trade on Monday, pretty much across the board.
- Long Gold
- Long Sasol
- Long Old Mutual (yeah yeah I know.... but there results are coming out so its worth a punt)
- Long Absa
- Long Remgro
You're probably thinking I'm a little loco going out on a limb here and going long but I think one has to stick to their convictions in some instances - I said 6800 was close enough to my short-term "low".
Also watching the Rand / Dollar exchange rate, I think this is where the kicker is going to come from over the next few days. The Rand slipped to R10.50 to the dollar and there doesn't seem to be too many reasons for it to go stronger either. I wouldn't be surprised if it fell to R11 to the dollar by the end of the week and that will provide a bit of upward momentum for our index - particularly if international markets take a bit of a breather...
Will see how it plays out
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