I have been watching these gold and platinum prices with some interest and this recent sell-off has caught my eye this evening.
Personally I thought gold would hold around the $1320 mark but it went straight through that and maybe $1310 will act as some kind of support level. I think the thing which has surprised me on this front is the reason S&P rating cut in Japan, I thought there might be some money cycled out of there and into precious metal commodities... apparently not yet.
Whatever, I find gold over-rated and really only for the looneys.
The metal which does interest me though is platinum and I've taken a small long position on it at $1790 on the April future. There is nothing complicated about my thinking here... look around SA at the moment, everything is being held together on a shoe-string - roads, traffic lights, rail etc etc. Throw in that the rain has soaked the coal for the power stations and there is now a massive transport strike scheduled for early in February.
If the signs of economic improvement are to be believed and the emphasis on clean energy keeps being punted and that platinum is expected to come out of South Africa then surely you can't go too far wrong backing the metal from here?
On the equity front only two real plays are jumping out at me:
Brait
Rushed up to R26.50 before a cautionary announcement was put out and then the stock slumped to R22 but has subsequently bounced. Good play at these levels considering the dividend
RE:CM & Calibre prefs (RACP)
You can buy RACP at less than the NAV of a cash shell... To me that is simply brain-dead if you believe that Piet Viljoen and his team can generate even the most basic long-term investment return.
With the fun and games in Japan earlier today with the S&P re-rating I reckon Friday could be an interesting day for traders. Let's see who keeps their heads.
Showing posts with label Platinum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Platinum. Show all posts
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Platinum
The precious metals took a bit of a thumping yesterday and you had gold flirting with $1030 and platinum as low as $1303.
Impala Platinum got sold off a bit as the metals prices fell but at R168 a share its not far off the R170 strike of that warrant so it doesn't worry me too much - especially as there is still time to run on it.
I've taken two other positions in late trade yesterday.
1. Long platinum at $1308
2. Long Dow - 9775
I wouldn't be surprised to see platinum bounce back to that $1340 price in the near term and the Dow, while looking expensive to some analysts also doesn't seem to have the inclination to fall hard and fast. If the Dow had another run at the 10000 mark I'd probably cash out and see if we consolidate at these levels.
Impala Platinum got sold off a bit as the metals prices fell but at R168 a share its not far off the R170 strike of that warrant so it doesn't worry me too much - especially as there is still time to run on it.
I've taken two other positions in late trade yesterday.
1. Long platinum at $1308
2. Long Dow - 9775
I wouldn't be surprised to see platinum bounce back to that $1340 price in the near term and the Dow, while looking expensive to some analysts also doesn't seem to have the inclination to fall hard and fast. If the Dow had another run at the 10000 mark I'd probably cash out and see if we consolidate at these levels.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Monday - quick note
Hello boys and girls
A busy day on Monday but one which ultimately went nowhere fast.
The primary reason for my angst was that Sasol went ex-dividend today which lopped R6 off its price - money which was quickly recovered as markets continued to rally.
Sasol eventually finished the day off 80c at R288 with the SOLSBG warrant ticking up 2c to finish at 31c.
Goldman Sachs today set a revised (downward) price target on the oil firm with a 12-month target of R403... still a handy premium to where it is now!
Gold carried on trucking up nicely and I have some small long positions open on platinum as well. If there are legs to this economic recovery then an industrial precious metal like platinum could benefit at present levels.
Anyway tomorrow is another day - happy trading!
A busy day on Monday but one which ultimately went nowhere fast.
The primary reason for my angst was that Sasol went ex-dividend today which lopped R6 off its price - money which was quickly recovered as markets continued to rally.
Sasol eventually finished the day off 80c at R288 with the SOLSBG warrant ticking up 2c to finish at 31c.
Goldman Sachs today set a revised (downward) price target on the oil firm with a 12-month target of R403... still a handy premium to where it is now!
Gold carried on trucking up nicely and I have some small long positions open on platinum as well. If there are legs to this economic recovery then an industrial precious metal like platinum could benefit at present levels.
Anyway tomorrow is another day - happy trading!
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Interesting market to be in
It is a tough market to be in at the moment. Every sense is screaming that equity prices are looking increasingly expensive but the market seems to be disagreeing and there is more green in Asia today after increasingly "bullish" economic data out of the US on the jobs front.... I have no comment on this data beyond saying that you cannot have an economic recovery while the number of unemployed continue to rise.
In terms of open trading positions I have a long on Gold from US$955 and Platinum from US$1250. Also taken a bit of a dirty little punt on sugar having read that there is a global shortage which is likely to fuel prices in the coming months.
The sugar one I can't comment on - it really was just a flutter and having looked around the reality of of sugar supply-side shortfall seems to be credible.
Platinum I think will see some increased demand going into the second half of 2009 with some re-stocking in the auto sector (the so called "cash-for-clunkers" programme) and maybe some jewellery demand as the economy stabilises. My guess is we could see platinum testing $1285 again this week.
Gold - The yellow metal has worked hard to get back above the $950 an ounce mark. There have been a couple of stomach curdling $10 - $15 drops on action in the dollar market - which have hurt me on stop losses a couple of times - but the metal seems to be behaving a little better after the sell-off last week. I think we could realistically see gold test $980 this week and I would be tempted to take some part profits at $975 if it gets a bit of wind under its sails.
On the equity front I've continued the habit of accumulating a mixture of ALSI constituents and the exchange traded funds (ETFs) that have been mentioned on this blog before.
In terms of open trading positions I have a long on Gold from US$955 and Platinum from US$1250. Also taken a bit of a dirty little punt on sugar having read that there is a global shortage which is likely to fuel prices in the coming months.
The sugar one I can't comment on - it really was just a flutter and having looked around the reality of of sugar supply-side shortfall seems to be credible.
Platinum I think will see some increased demand going into the second half of 2009 with some re-stocking in the auto sector (the so called "cash-for-clunkers" programme) and maybe some jewellery demand as the economy stabilises. My guess is we could see platinum testing $1285 again this week.
Gold - The yellow metal has worked hard to get back above the $950 an ounce mark. There have been a couple of stomach curdling $10 - $15 drops on action in the dollar market - which have hurt me on stop losses a couple of times - but the metal seems to be behaving a little better after the sell-off last week. I think we could realistically see gold test $980 this week and I would be tempted to take some part profits at $975 if it gets a bit of wind under its sails.
On the equity front I've continued the habit of accumulating a mixture of ALSI constituents and the exchange traded funds (ETFs) that have been mentioned on this blog before.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Friday trades
Only open trades at the moment are short copper and short platinum which I went into last night...
It all just looks a bit too toppish for me and expecting a bit of a commodities sell-off today.
Drifting in and out of oil at above 69.50 - think this has run a little too hard in the last few days - time for a breather.
Hard to call the markets with the BHP news giving a skew opening to the All Share... Will see..
It all just looks a bit too toppish for me and expecting a bit of a commodities sell-off today.
Drifting in and out of oil at above 69.50 - think this has run a little too hard in the last few days - time for a breather.
Hard to call the markets with the BHP news giving a skew opening to the All Share... Will see..
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Gold flying!
The gold price has spiked up sharply at the start of US trade.
Currently the metal is trading at US$942 after starting earlier today at US$902.
South African equities could sorely do with a lift in the underlying prices of precious metals like Gold and Platinum. The spectre of massive job losses in these sectors is weighing heavily on South Africa and if metals prices are up this might serve as a bit of buffer to the producers....
For example Anglo Platinum earlier this week said it was planning to shed something like 10000 jobs in the next few weeks. Platinum has added US$31 to take the price to US$1067. Nowhere near levels seen in previous years but it might help.
But like I've warned before - I get nervous when we see big unexpected spikes in the gold price.... To me it serves as a precursor for more dollar weakness and structural problems in the financial market...
Time will tell
Currently the metal is trading at US$942 after starting earlier today at US$902.
South African equities could sorely do with a lift in the underlying prices of precious metals like Gold and Platinum. The spectre of massive job losses in these sectors is weighing heavily on South Africa and if metals prices are up this might serve as a bit of buffer to the producers....
For example Anglo Platinum earlier this week said it was planning to shed something like 10000 jobs in the next few weeks. Platinum has added US$31 to take the price to US$1067. Nowhere near levels seen in previous years but it might help.
But like I've warned before - I get nervous when we see big unexpected spikes in the gold price.... To me it serves as a precursor for more dollar weakness and structural problems in the financial market...
Time will tell
Friday, November 21, 2008
Here Be Dragons...
In late US trade yesterday, stocks on the Dow Jones and S&P500 surged in excess of 6% as President-elect Barack Obama picked New York Federal Reserve Bank chief Timothy Geithner to replace Henry Paulson.
I don’t follow US people too much, but judging from the market reaction, he comes with a good reputation. But on the subject of whether one man can stop what is fast looking like a protracted financial crisis – the jury is still out.
What I thought was an interesting ‘leading’ indicator was the difference in price movements in the platinum and gold prices yesterday. Gold the traditional safe haven, platinum the industrial and ‘luxury’ metal for jewellery.
The gold price shoots up to US$801 an ounce while platinum is marginally firmer around US$824… So in other words the ‘safe’ metal has gone up while the industrial metal (or luxury metal – depending on how you look at it) – which is supposed to indicate that consumer and business confidence may be returning hasn’t got near the same level of ‘emotional’ support from the markets.
Hhhhhmmmmm wonder if the real market is telling us something there>
Don’t get me wrong, I think at these levels the market may be offering some value for long term investors. I’ve been buying index tracking funds for some offshore exposure as well as some SA equities for a while now – but those have got a longer term investment horizon. The point is – if you’re planning to buy in on the rally in the US – I get the sneaky suspicion on my investor map that it should be marked with the Here Be Dragons (HBD) symbol.
Just something else that is worrying me around short term shocks to the SA market… Maria Ramos has just been appointed as the new CEO of Absa (As of 1 March 2009). Ramos and Gill Marcus have denied that there will be any conflict of interest with Trevor Manuel (Ramos’ partner). There is some concern that Ramos being appointed to a major bank may indicate that Manuel may step down next year – we all remember what happened the last time rumours started circulating that he had resigned with all the other cabinet ministers….
I don’t follow US people too much, but judging from the market reaction, he comes with a good reputation. But on the subject of whether one man can stop what is fast looking like a protracted financial crisis – the jury is still out.
What I thought was an interesting ‘leading’ indicator was the difference in price movements in the platinum and gold prices yesterday. Gold the traditional safe haven, platinum the industrial and ‘luxury’ metal for jewellery.
The gold price shoots up to US$801 an ounce while platinum is marginally firmer around US$824… So in other words the ‘safe’ metal has gone up while the industrial metal (or luxury metal – depending on how you look at it) – which is supposed to indicate that consumer and business confidence may be returning hasn’t got near the same level of ‘emotional’ support from the markets.
Hhhhhmmmmm wonder if the real market is telling us something there>
Don’t get me wrong, I think at these levels the market may be offering some value for long term investors. I’ve been buying index tracking funds for some offshore exposure as well as some SA equities for a while now – but those have got a longer term investment horizon. The point is – if you’re planning to buy in on the rally in the US – I get the sneaky suspicion on my investor map that it should be marked with the Here Be Dragons (HBD) symbol.
Just something else that is worrying me around short term shocks to the SA market… Maria Ramos has just been appointed as the new CEO of Absa (As of 1 March 2009). Ramos and Gill Marcus have denied that there will be any conflict of interest with Trevor Manuel (Ramos’ partner). There is some concern that Ramos being appointed to a major bank may indicate that Manuel may step down next year – we all remember what happened the last time rumours started circulating that he had resigned with all the other cabinet ministers….
Gold and (SPlat)inum
After my atrocious call on Impala Platinum as a screaming buy at R180, I’ve tended to stay away from commodity stocks.
Having said that, there’s an interesting thing that I have been watching with half an eye – the gold price is rapidly sneaking up on the platinum price – something that would have sounded completely unrealistic a few months back when platinum was at nearly 2000 dollars an ounce.
This morning, gold was within 31 dollars of platinum. Both metals have moved up a bit on European trade.
Currently gold is trading at 756.6 dollars (up 12 from yesterday) and platinum is trading at 806 (up 37).
The Gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) – GLD – is showing some real strength since September – while most other asset classes are taking stick, the Gold ETF has added value and I don’t think its finished yet either.
The ETF has climbed from around R60 to around R78 which is a pretty healthy return in these tough times. The Gold price itself seems to have established a base at around US$720 and is gaining momentum, the more apparent the trouble in the global economy becomes and the stronger the dollar goes – the better the return on the ETF becomes.
Can’t say whether it will continue to offer good returns for investors but I have added a few to my portfolio in recent months as a form of capital protection.
Having said that, there’s an interesting thing that I have been watching with half an eye – the gold price is rapidly sneaking up on the platinum price – something that would have sounded completely unrealistic a few months back when platinum was at nearly 2000 dollars an ounce.
This morning, gold was within 31 dollars of platinum. Both metals have moved up a bit on European trade.
Currently gold is trading at 756.6 dollars (up 12 from yesterday) and platinum is trading at 806 (up 37).
The Gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) – GLD – is showing some real strength since September – while most other asset classes are taking stick, the Gold ETF has added value and I don’t think its finished yet either.
The ETF has climbed from around R60 to around R78 which is a pretty healthy return in these tough times. The Gold price itself seems to have established a base at around US$720 and is gaining momentum, the more apparent the trouble in the global economy becomes and the stronger the dollar goes – the better the return on the ETF becomes.
Can’t say whether it will continue to offer good returns for investors but I have added a few to my portfolio in recent months as a form of capital protection.
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