- Bombs in Russia (I think there is more to this story to come)
- Riots in India
- Problems in Thailand
- Violence in Mexico
- Some protectionist stuff happening in the US / China row
- Greece and Portugal debt problems won't go away
Showing posts with label US markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US markets. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Time to go defensive?
It is interesting to look at some of the flash points coming up around the world over the last few weeks:
Monday, January 26, 2009
Ja, no, WHATEVER!
A 38 point "rebound" on the Dow and we're getting all excited that we've hit a bottom?! Strewth...
A big part of the US rebound was driven by better than expected US Home Sales figures and this got the Yanks all nice and bubbly and the Dow was up nearly 2% until reality hit home and the market scratched out a small gain.
Asia has also started out green, but I wouldn't hold my breath on this one - even if it plays havoc with my short on Sasol.
Home sales
I didn't see much coverage of it and I don't profess to be a master of the US financial reporting sector but at some point home sales figures have to bounce for the simple reason that there is a false "buyer" in the market and it sure as hell ain't the US consumer....
Exactly the same thing is happening in South Africa at the moment - the consumers are getting their houses repossesed and the banks are sending out their agents to buy them up because there is no demand for the properties from consumers who can't afford them.
I also think its quite convenient that it came out a week after Obama signals in "a new era"... but that might just be the conspiracy theorist in me...
Retrenchments
You want to know to know why I doubt its the consumer rushing out to buy a new house?! Try this for the reason:
Put simply - That's 60000 odd consumers having to further watch their spending or fill up their cars or invest in equity markets or the property market that needs to come into the system...
Gold
The gold price broke through US$900 level yesterday following up on the gains made on Friday.
I tend to get a little excited when gold starts firing for the simple reason that it tends to be a pre-cursor to further carnage. That's a bit of a generic statement but I think its justified in the current environment.
Sasol short
I remain with an open short position on Sasol although I think movements in the market yesterday and probably today are going to make position look a little unattractive but let's wait and see.
In my head I still see the Dow dropping probably another 30% from these levels and further downside on the ALSI of between 10 and 15%.
Let's see how today plays out and reassess at the end of the trading day.
A big part of the US rebound was driven by better than expected US Home Sales figures and this got the Yanks all nice and bubbly and the Dow was up nearly 2% until reality hit home and the market scratched out a small gain.
Asia has also started out green, but I wouldn't hold my breath on this one - even if it plays havoc with my short on Sasol.
Home sales
I didn't see much coverage of it and I don't profess to be a master of the US financial reporting sector but at some point home sales figures have to bounce for the simple reason that there is a false "buyer" in the market and it sure as hell ain't the US consumer....
Exactly the same thing is happening in South Africa at the moment - the consumers are getting their houses repossesed and the banks are sending out their agents to buy them up because there is no demand for the properties from consumers who can't afford them.
I also think its quite convenient that it came out a week after Obama signals in "a new era"... but that might just be the conspiracy theorist in me...
Retrenchments
You want to know to know why I doubt its the consumer rushing out to buy a new house?! Try this for the reason:
- Caterpillar: 20,000 job cuts
- Pfizer: 19,000 job cuts (10% reduction), plus additional layoffs due to merger with Wyeth
- Sprint Nextel: 8,000 job cuts
- Home Depot: 7,000 job cuts (ODD IF THE CONSUMER WAS TURNING THE CORNER HUH?!)
- Texas Instruments - 12% of global workforce
- Philips: 6,000 jobs
- Lincoln National Corp - 540 jobs
Put simply - That's 60000 odd consumers having to further watch their spending or fill up their cars or invest in equity markets or the property market that needs to come into the system...
Gold
The gold price broke through US$900 level yesterday following up on the gains made on Friday.
I tend to get a little excited when gold starts firing for the simple reason that it tends to be a pre-cursor to further carnage. That's a bit of a generic statement but I think its justified in the current environment.
Sasol short
I remain with an open short position on Sasol although I think movements in the market yesterday and probably today are going to make position look a little unattractive but let's wait and see.
In my head I still see the Dow dropping probably another 30% from these levels and further downside on the ALSI of between 10 and 15%.
Let's see how today plays out and reassess at the end of the trading day.
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