I probably don't understand society but...

... we wake up on Monday after a massive earthquake has hit a major commodity producer like Chile and markets are going up?!

Me - I am largely indifferent but it says a lot about society doesn't it. My only open position at the moment is long the US dollar versus the Euro and some small long-term equity positions and that's about it.

This is a massive earthquake and there have been 90+ aftershocks to rock Chile all between 5.0 and 7 on the Richter scale. The swells off the coast of Hawaii are rising again and action in the Pacific on Friday was felt in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Californaia (which you can short the shit out of till it sinks into the sea), Chile and Hawaii.

If you're interested in currencies, there is a good story on Bloomberg this morning predicting that pound sterling could drop by as much as 30% against the US dollar.

“Alarm bells were ringing in Greece for a long time and when it happened, it happened very quickly,” Haig Bathgate, head of strategy at Turcan Connell, said at the company’s offices in the Scottish capital. “The U.K. is in a similar predicament. It could be hit very hard.”

You can trade Forex products here if you want to get in on the action.

With any luck the Poms also sinking into the sea along with California and we're saved from their painful whinging and Wayne Bridge acting all sanctimonious about his woman being groped by a team-mate.

Anyway time to sit back and watch Hawaii get washed away...

Dead Cat

Hate to say it but don't get too excited about this bounce today. I see the JSE and world markets are all trading up a bit as the European rescue plan is mooted...

But just think for a minute - what has fundamentally changed since today and Friday? Yes Europe has agreed to shovel money into equity markets to try and prevent future collapses, but this doesn't mean much in the bigger scheme of things.

Read the JSE Sens announcements this morning and you will see where the real problem is coming for South Africa.

Sallies - the fluorspar miner - has confirmed they will be closing down its Buffalo operations putting 130 people out of work. Banks are either cutting jobs or at the very least not hiring.
Miners are seeing their base and precious metals get prices get slaughtered - why would they be hiring?

What is going to happen when these people come into the ranks of the unemployed?
Who is going to pay their bills? This is the problem that SA businesses are likely to face going forward? Unemployment is already an issue in South Africa, a recession, depression or "global slowdown" as the strategists like to call it will be the catastrophe our system didn't need.
If we are repossessing 6-7000 cars a month at the moment, then what is going to be the case when the unemployment figures start to bite?

I heard a figure today at lunch that 130 motor dealerships had closed up in the last few weeks. More jobs disappear from the system?

You walked through many of the shopping centres in the last few weeks? Look at the number of shops closing their doors and doing closing down sales...

Lets not get too excited about a little bit of a bounce in the stock markets... the pressure remains to the downside....