Sasol, the Nasdaq and the Dollar

So we are slowly sliding out of an interesting 2010 and treading with some trepidation into 2011. Markets are interesting at the moment... I wouldn't say tough because I'm still happy being long for the simple reason that there is a sea of liquidity out there desperately seeking places to be parked. I think it is pretty obvious that people are not going to make (or even protect) money by leaving it in the bank.

I have three active trades on the go at the moment:

Sasol
I like this share. Good dividend payer, growth prospects, trades at a discount to its peers and hell its been largely unloved in 2010 despite oil now heading for $100 a barrel. The company started the year at R290 a share and up until September it didn't go anywhere but in the last couple of weeks its been slowly

gaining some momentum and looks like it wants to push aboe R340 a share.

Call me a cynic but the company is widely held by domestic asset managers and I wouldn't be surprised if this stock starts getting some serious media attention in the early half of 2011 as they try and ramp up their portfolios. Sasol also recently announced a $1bn investment in a Canadian project and a lot of its other Gas to Liquids (GTL) plants are coming on line and pushing up production volumes.

All signs are there that Sasol is kicking up a gear so I am comfortable being long Sasol at R335.

The Nasdaq
Technology stocks have been out of favour in the US for a while now but there is lot going for them. The last couple of quarters have been good for telecomms and tech stocks with many indicating share buybacks and dividends were on the cards. I stand under correction but I think Intel has lifted its dividend in each of the last five years.

US companies have sat with alot of cash on their balance sheets over the last two years and at some point they are going to look to deploy that capital. That means investing in new technology, PCs, semi-conductors etc. A Nasdaq at 2600 doesn't seem to be too risky in my books.

The Dollar
Considering how I got smacked around by US currency over the last six months I probably need my head read but here's my logic:

- The US is coming out of recession
- AIG, Bank of America and Citigroup are repaying their debts
- The emerging market story is interesting but it has meant that many of the US companies are offering some seriously good value. I wouldn't be surprised if demand for US assets starts to rise as institutional investors start realising that they get better value for their money in the US rather than directly ploughing money into emerging markets?

I thought about it a bit and decided to go long dollar, short yen. There is some uncertainty in Asia with the Korean spat so I wonder if the basket of Asian currencies might come under some selling pressure?

Let's see how those play out over the next few weeks.... Happy Xmas and New Year folks

The Wire: New offering from Global Trader

I was just forwarded the following announcement from Global Trader and I thought it was quite an interesting idea for day traders / investors. Anybody tried it out? Thoughts?

You can check out the offering here.

The Wire. A Christmas gift worth waiting for

By Charles Savage, CEO of Global Trader

I don’t remember exactly when I first white boarded my vision for Global Traders’ online community offering but it was sometime in 2007. I clearly remember the enthusiasm and excitement with which the IT and marketing teams met my idea, excitement more about the fact that the CEO had finally lost his mind and had nothing to do with my idea at all.

Two Chief Technology Officers later and the work of people best described as wizards, magicians and conjurers and we launched version one of The Wire. The Wire is the name for the new online world we have created and is the centre of our financial community and the platform from which all our community driven services come to life.

It is a closed community in the sense that it is available to our live trading clients only but, beyond this, the restrictions fall away swiftly. The Wire is free to air and it is a radical new approach to delivering meaningful, actionable financial information that enables collaboration and communication and breaks down the barriers between those that trade and those that should trade.

At Global Trader we make it our business to smash down these barriers because we believe that for too long financial markets have unjustifiably been shrouded in mystery and intrigue. It is seen as the realm of engineers, actuaries and rocket scientists that, for the most part, have discouraged you from doing it yourself. To quote Peter Lynch, one of the most successful Wall Street investors of all time, “everyone has the brainpower to follow the stock market. If you made it through fifth-grade math, you can do it.” The truth is that Global Trader has now made trading simple.

On The Wire you can call yourself whatever you like, talk to traders, publish your research and views, read blogs about investing, technology trends affecting trading and read about how we view the world of investing. You can live vicariously through your trading alias and learn from fellow traders. When it comes to the what, when and how successfully you trade The Wire is an open book.

Do you remember your first casino experience? I do and I’m pretty sure it went something like this. You wondered around the casino halls in awe of the sounds, light and music, stopping occasionally to peer over the shoulder of the confident punters taking up the seats at the machines and tables. You paused and looked on in wonder at the piles of chips in front of some of the players and, after plucking up enough courage, reached forward and placed your chips behind one of them. You won some and you lost some but you learnt from every hand and grew in confidence until finally a seat became free and you pounced on it.

With The Wire’s Twades you can stand behind real live traders, follow their trades, track their success and if you like even put your money behind their portfolio punts until you feel comfortable enough to join them at the table. If you’ve played enough Blackjack, as I have, you will know that it is always good to cover a couple of boxes. Twades is our “first flight” service to launch on The Wire with more first flight services lined up for 2011.

Then there’s She–Ra, my personal favourite financial blogger, who publishes her work on The Wire’s Skirt Length Theory blog. If there is still some youth about you then you are going to love her approach to financial markets. She says of the myth surrounding trading, “Do you see images of a high risk, fast paced environment populated by coked up investment w*nkers or images of old fogies that have made their millions sitting in silk slippers barking orders at their brokers whilst smoking a pipe? If so then you would be only the tiniest bit right and you would also be SO wrong!”

I have no doubt that the launch of the Wire will be reflected on in Global Traders’ history as the defining moment that best demonstrated our commitment to the vision to boldly go where no South African financial service provider has even dared to dream about. Welcome to the New World!

Insider trading just got trumped by Twades! The question is, were you following?

Griftopia: Bubble Machines, Vampire Squids, and the Long Con That Is Breaking America

I enjoy Matt Taibbi and the "colour" he puts into the story he tells - I don't think anyone will ever forget the now famous paragraph:

"The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere. The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."
The new book from Taibbi was hellishly entertaining, there are some cracking one-liners in it and I still have a good laugh about some of them.

The blurb for the book reads as below:
The dramatic story behind the most audacious power grab in American history The financial crisis that exploded in 2008 isn’t past but prologue. The stunning rise, fall, and rescue of Wall Street in the bubble-and-bailout era was the coming-out party for the network of looters who sit at the nexus of American political and economic power. The grifter class—made up of the largest players in the financial industry and the politicians who do their bidding—has been growing in power for a generation, transferring wealth upward through increasingly complex financial mechanisms and political maneuvers. The crisis was only one terrifying manifestation of how they’ve hijacked America’s political and economic life. Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi here unravels the whole fiendish story, digging beyond the headlines to get into the deeper roots and wider implications of the rise of the grifters. He traces the movement’s origins to the cult of Ayn Rand and her most influential—and possibly weirdest—acolyte, Alan Greenspan, and offers fresh reporting on the backroom deals that decided the winners and losers in the government bailouts. He uncovers the hidden commodities bubble that transferred billions of dollars to Wall Street while creating food shortages around the world, and he shows how finance dominates politics, from the story of investment bankers auctioning off America’s infrastructure to an inside account of the high-stakes battle for health-care reform—a battle the true reformers lost. Finally, he tells the story of Goldman Sachs, the “vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity.”

Definately worthwhile as a read for Christmas. You can buy it from Kalahari for R205 by clicking HERE or on the cover.