I see that there has been quite a lot of talk about South African small caps in recent weeks. Probably because the market has been so kak that people have nothing better to talk about.
With that in mind, I thought it would be fun to look at some of the small-caps which appear on my screen and see whether other traders agree?
Beige Holdings
I have been tipping this one for ages and so far it has gone nowhere fast. This should in theory be an easy stock to double your money on, but geez I have been saying that for how long and I'm still waiting.
ISA
This is a good stock in a growth industry. Cash generative, no debt and it actually pays a dividend - a rarity in the IT sector. Internet and IT security is going to continue to be a key industry going forward. ASk anybody who has had their home or work PC or mobile device crippled by a computer virus and you will appreciate why a business like this has so much to offer and will consistently be able to achieve ongoing annuity income.
Interwaste
I walked to the shops this morning and was aware of all the uncollected rubbish on the pavement from last weeks municipal strike. Its unpleasant to live in a decent neighbourhood and be surrounded by flies and rotting waste and there is not a hell of a lot that you as the ordinary consumer can do about it.Now imagine how much waste is being generated by businesses and more importantly how much it costs to deal with that waste. This share hasn't exactly covered itself in glory since being listed, but its a good industry to be in with very high barriers to entry.
Buildmax
I was actually checking up on my Brait shares and I was reminded that the Brait guys paid R1.50 a share for Buildmax. Now its trading around 50c a share. I still think it is a good story for those with a longer-term appetite.
Anybody got any better suggestions?
Monday, April 19, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Goldman Sachs kicked in the nuts
I remember watching a movie once where a new kid starts a school after being bullied at the old school. Sure enough this geeky looking kid gets bullied on the first day and nobody wants to hang around with the local whipping boy. He goes home and asks his dad (or maybe it was his uncle?) what he should do because he can't go through another year of torment.
The advice he gets is very simple: "It doesn't matter whether it is a sneak attack, you walk up to the biggest bully on the playground and you kick him as hard as you can in the nuts in the most public place. If he drops, your year has been made and you will be the hero of the school".
Judging from the fun and games in the US on Friday, I reckon somebody over at the SEC has adopted a similar kind of strategy to "right-size" banking giant Goldman Sachs.
Much like it doesn't matter whether or not the bully has psychological issues or problems at home, I don't think that the SEC is all that concerned about the merits of their case. They've snuck up on an industry giant which believes it is untouchable and possibly fired the first salvo in a carpet bombing exercise aimed at the investment banking industry.
Will this even dent Goldman Sachs? Probably not - the guys that work there are too clever to even blink.
But for the rest of the industry, a very clear message has been sent.
The start of a genuine correction?
I'm undecided on whether or not markets are expensive and I think it is folly to try and play that game. Personally I probably wouldn't be buying too many shares right now if I was looking to make money in the next 6 to 12 months.
In fact if I had to hazard a guess this little assault on GS could be maybe the right kind of message to market participants that it is now time to step back and reassess the landscape.
How many compliance managers at the various investment banks and brokerages are scurrying around this weekend trying to double check that their systems are in place? How many are going to be advising their traders that the regulators are being a little nosier than expected and maybe they need to pull in any potential troublesome trades / activities?
Another interesting thing which was missed is that the VIX actually rose to its highest level in 12 months on Friday.
While I'm sure it certainly doesn't help (the traders) that regulators are being nosy and digging into the activities of some of the big guns on Wall Street, maybe it is just a sign that there is some downside risk in the near-term?
The advice he gets is very simple: "It doesn't matter whether it is a sneak attack, you walk up to the biggest bully on the playground and you kick him as hard as you can in the nuts in the most public place. If he drops, your year has been made and you will be the hero of the school".
Judging from the fun and games in the US on Friday, I reckon somebody over at the SEC has adopted a similar kind of strategy to "right-size" banking giant Goldman Sachs.
Much like it doesn't matter whether or not the bully has psychological issues or problems at home, I don't think that the SEC is all that concerned about the merits of their case. They've snuck up on an industry giant which believes it is untouchable and possibly fired the first salvo in a carpet bombing exercise aimed at the investment banking industry.
Will this even dent Goldman Sachs? Probably not - the guys that work there are too clever to even blink.
But for the rest of the industry, a very clear message has been sent.
The start of a genuine correction?
I'm undecided on whether or not markets are expensive and I think it is folly to try and play that game. Personally I probably wouldn't be buying too many shares right now if I was looking to make money in the next 6 to 12 months.
In fact if I had to hazard a guess this little assault on GS could be maybe the right kind of message to market participants that it is now time to step back and reassess the landscape.
How many compliance managers at the various investment banks and brokerages are scurrying around this weekend trying to double check that their systems are in place? How many are going to be advising their traders that the regulators are being a little nosier than expected and maybe they need to pull in any potential troublesome trades / activities?
Another interesting thing which was missed is that the VIX actually rose to its highest level in 12 months on Friday.
While I'm sure it certainly doesn't help (the traders) that regulators are being nosy and digging into the activities of some of the big guns on Wall Street, maybe it is just a sign that there is some downside risk in the near-term?
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